Bill Gross's monthly investment outlook is a must-read. Here he talks about a trillion dollar write-down the banks would have to take before things get better. Home, sweet home, when the cows come home?
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2008/Investment+Outlook+Bill+Gross+Mooooooo+August+2008.htm
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Monday, July 21, 2008
Given a Shovel, Americans Dig Deeper Into Debt
http://community.nytimes.com/article/comments/2008/07/20/business/20debt.html?s=5
Ben Franklin said "I'd rather go to bed supperless, than rise up in debt", and "think what you do when you run into debt; you give another power over your liberty."
Where have all these good old American virtues gone?
Ben Franklin said "I'd rather go to bed supperless, than rise up in debt", and "think what you do when you run into debt; you give another power over your liberty."
Where have all these good old American virtues gone?
Friday, July 18, 2008
Anthony Hsieh: “I am the American dream.”
“I didn’t build a business to make money. Money is a byproduct,” he says. “I am the American dream.”
http://www.coastmagazine.com/Coast-Magazine/March-2008/Selling-the-Sail/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVaSTJgW5nk
Hats to you, Tony Hsieh. Wish you catch that 1000 lbs Marlin on your next fishing trip.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The Modern Stealth Depression
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/depression-california-housing-mortgage-time/index/a/18055
A sign of our time - A bank run in Golden California.
"Yes, it's here. Welcome to the Depression. No, don't drop whatever it is you're doing. Don't get up. It's not going anywhere. It will wait. It's just going to sit over here in the corner and read a magazine while you do whatever it is you need to do.
A Depression doesn't run hot and fierce like some crazed meth burner. A Depression is methodical, purposeful, patient. It will build a shelter out of tree branches and newspaper, light a small, well-contained campfire and wait you out, brother. While you feed on the empty calories of denial and popcorn, it will quietly gather shards of broken dreams and fashion them into a terrible weapon of blunt force reality. "
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Snow Says Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Followed `Hedge Fund' Model'
Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4ynJu8BwhmI
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary JohnSnow said that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have relied on leverage to fund their businesses in the same fashion as a hedgefund. Snow, now chairman of New York-based buyout fund Cerberus Capital Management LP, said in a telephone interview. He said he suggested when in office that ``the business model they were using was really the model of a hedge fund.''
When you think about it, isn't the USA operating like a giant hedge fund?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4ynJu8BwhmI
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary JohnSnow said that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have relied on leverage to fund their businesses in the same fashion as a hedgefund. Snow, now chairman of New York-based buyout fund Cerberus Capital Management LP, said in a telephone interview. He said he suggested when in office that ``the business model they were using was really the model of a hedge fund.''
When you think about it, isn't the USA operating like a giant hedge fund?
Saturday, July 5, 2008
"Dear President Obama" from Bill Gross
Bill Gross's outlook for the next few years, outlined in his latest investment outlook:
"A trillion dollars of government deficit spending is potent medicine. Its potency regarding inflation will not be felt fully during the peak deficit period. Rather, inflation will accelerate during the subsequent recovery as the government bonds acquired during the recession are transformed once again into risk bearing assets and high levels of investment. That suggests that intermediate and long-term yields on government bonds have already bottomed and will gradually rise throughout your first, and perhaps second Administration. Your term will not go down in history as investor friendly."
Friday, July 4, 2008
A change of subject
So the house is done, now what? I don't know yet- so I will use this blog as an place-holder of my paper-clippings. Anythime I found something interesting that I read on the web - I will copy it down here.
Direct from Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett is the richest man in the world - what is his secret? The interview below has the answers directly from his own mouth. It is so down to the earth - and he makes it sound so easy - but is there anyone else out there, who still lives in the same house bought 50 yrs ago, after he made his billions?
Students from Emory's Goizueta Business School and McCombs School of Business at UT Austin were invited to come visit Mr. Buffett for a Q&A session. These notes were reproduced to the best of my ability as I heard and as I could recall them from a collection of mine and other students' notes. There is no guarantee that this was exactly what was said, but the intent was to preserve the spirit of the message. Enjoy.
Emory:
With the popularity of "Fortune's Formula" and the Kelly Criterion, there seems to be a lot of debate in the value community regarding diversification vs. concentration. I know where you side in that discussion, but was curious if you could tell us more about your process for position sizing or averaging down.
Buffett:
I have 2 views on diversification. If you are a professional and have confidence, then I would advocate lots of concentration. For everyone else, if it’s not your game, participate in total diversification. The economy will do fine over time. Make sure you don’t buy at the wrong price or the wrong time. That’s what most people should do, buy a cheap index fund and slowly dollar cost average into it. If you try to be just a little bit smart, spending an hour a week investing, you’re liable to be really dumb.If it’s your game, diversification doesn’t make sense. It’s crazy to put money into your 20th choice rather than your 1st choice. “Lebron James” analogy. If you have Lebron James on your team, don’t take him out of the game just to make room for someone else. If you have a harem of 40 women, you never really get to know any of them well.Charlie and I operated mostly with 5 positions. If I were running 50, 100, 200 million, I would have 80% in 5 positions, with 25% for the largest. In 1964 I found a position I was willing to go heavier into, up to 40%. I told investors they could pull their money out. None did. The position was American Express after the Salad Oil Scandal. In 1951 I put the bulk of my net worth into GEICO. Later in 1998, LTCM was in trouble. With the spread between the on-the-run versus off-the-run 30 year Treasury bonds, I would have been willing to put 75% of my portfolio into it. There were various times I would have gone up to 75%, even in the past few years. If it’s your game and you really know your business, you can load up.Over the past 50-60 years, Charlie and I have never permanently lost more than 2% of our personal worth on a position. We’ve suffered quotational loss, 50% movements. That’s why you should never borrow money. We don’t want to get into situations where anyone can pull the rug out from under our feet.In stocks, it’s the only place where when things go on sale, people get unhappy. If I like a business, then it makes sense to buy more at 20 than at 30. If McDonalds reduces the price of hamburgers, I think it’s great.
Austin:
What industry will be the next growth driver in the 21st century and what do you see that supports that?
Buffett:
We don’t worry too much about that. If you’d look at the 1930s, nobody could have predicted how much the automobile and airplane would transform the world. There were 2000 car companies, but now only 3 left in the US and they are hanging on barely. It was tremendous for society, but horrible for investors. Investors would have had to not only identify the right companies, but also identify the right time. The net wealth creation in airlines since Orville Wright has been next to zero. If a capitalist had been at Kitty Hawk and shot him down, would have done us a huge favor. Or look at TV manufacturers. There are hundreds of millions of TV’s, RCA & GE used to produce them, but now there are no American manufacturers left.If you want a great business, take Coca-Cola. The product is unchanged, they sell 1.5 billion 8 ounce servings per day 122 years later. They have a moat; if you have a castle, someone’s going to come after you.Gillette accounts for 70% of razor sales at 80% gross margins and it is the same over time. Men don’t change much. Shaving might be the only creative thing they do, like painting the Sistine Chapel.Snickers has been the #1 candy bar for the past 40 years. If you gave me $1 billion to knock off Snickers, I can’t do it. That’s the test of a good business. You don’t knock off Coke or Gilette. Richard Branson is a marketing genius. He came in with Virgin Cola, we’re not sure what the name means, perhaps it turns you back into one, but he couldn’t knock off Coke. We look for wide moats around great economic castles. Growth is good too, but we prefer strong economics. In the upcoming annual report I have a section titled “The Great, the Good, and the Gruesome” where I talk about these.
Emory:
How do you define happiness and what about your life makes you most happy? When you make good on an investment, do you allow yourself to enjoy that success by getting excited - and on the flip-side, when an investment turns down, do you find yourself equally disappointed - or do you try to remove emotion from your work, as much as possible?
Buffett:
I enjoy what I do, I tap dance to work every day. I work with people I love, doing what I love. The only thing I would pay to get rid of is firing people. I spend my time thinking about the future, not the past. The future is exciting. As Bertrand Russell says, “Success is getting what you want, happiness is wanting what you get.” I won the ovarian lottery the day I was born and so did all of you. We’re all successful, intelligent, educated. To focus on what you don’t have is a terrible mistake. With the gifts all of us have, if you are unhappy, it’s your own fault.I know a woman in her 80’s, a Polish Jew woman forced into a concentration camp with her family but not all of them came out. She says, “I am slow to make friends because when I look at people, I have one question in mind; would they hide me?” If you get to be my age, or younger for that matter, and have a lot of people that would hide you, then you can feel pretty good about how you’ve lived your life. I know people on the Forbes 400 list whose children would not hide them. “He’s in the attic, he’s in the attic.” Some of them keep compensating by joining board seats or getting honorary degrees, but it doesn’t change the fact that no one will give a damn when they are gone. The most powerful force in the world is unconditional love. To horde it is a terrible mistake in life. The more you try to give it away, the more you get it back. At an individual level, it’s important to make sure that for the people that count to you, you count to them.What if you could buy 10% of one of your classmates and their future earnings? You wouldn’t buy the ones with the highest IQ, the best grades, etc, but the most effective. You like people who are generous, go out of their way, straight shooters. Now imagine that you could short 10% of one of your classmates. This part is usually more fun as you start looking around the room. You wouldn’t choose the ones with the poorest grades. Look for people nobody wants to be around, that are obnoxious or like to take all the credit. If you have a 500 HP engine and only get 50 HP out of it, you’ll be beat by someone else that has a 300 HP engine but gets 250 HP output. The difference between potential and output comes from human qualities. You can make a list of the qualities you admire and those you despise. To turn the tables, think if this is the way I react to the qualities on the list, which is the way the world will react to me. You can learn to turn on those qualities you want and turn off those qualities you wish to avoid. The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. You can’t change at 60; the time to look at that list is now.
Austin:
Why do you think that despite making your methods publicly available, that relatively few people have been able to emulate your success?
Buffett:
I asked Graham the same question. Everyone took his class at Columbia Business School. He used current examples, and by the end of the semester you would have a portfolio that would’ve made you money. Graham lived a life of sharing. He may have had more money hoarding, but lived happier because of it. The money’s just a figure in the paper, perhaps he would’ve died with 86 million instead of 42 million, but it doesn’t really matter. 90% of the people that took his class ended up doing something else.At age 11 I started investing, purchasing three shares of Cities Service Preferred. I had read every book on investing in the Omaha library. I was really into charting and technical analysis. I loved it, but didn’t make any money from it. At 19 I read Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” and it changed my world. Did Ben lose because I read his book? Maybe we competed and he made less money, but it didn’t matter to Graham.The philosophy either takes immediately or it doesn’t at all. The reason gets down to temperament. People want to make money fast, but it doesn’t happen that way. Graham’s philosophy doesn’t promise enough for many people. You don’t know when it will happen, but you just wait for the fat pitches within your circle of competence. It’s not as exciting as guessing whether the stock price will go up the next day. Most investors in internet companies didn’t know the market cap. They were buying because they thought the stock would move, but if you asked them to write “I would buy XYZ company for $6 billion because”, they wouldn’t get halfway through the sentence. It’s the classic tortoise versus hare, bound to work over time. Charlie and I have educated competitors. Most don’t compete with us, though. It’s fine, we have more than enough money.
Emory:
What qualities in managers set them apart as great leaders, in essence, where do you find the right balance between "hard" and "soft" skills?Buffett:We have 45 managers. Some of them we communicate with once a year, some once a month, some everyday. I usually have dinner with the Blumkins every month, and we go on vacation, because we’re friends. What we look for in managers is a passion for the business. They usually come to us. I’ve never bought from a financial seller. We can’t run the business so I am counting on them to behave well; we have very little in the form of contracts. The business needs to continue just the same after I hand them the check as before. My big question is whether he will still get up at 6 AM just the same with $500 million, and continue to send money to Omaha. I have to look them in the eye and decide whether they love the business or they love the money. It’s fine if they love the money, but they have to love the business more. Why do I come in at 7 every morning, can’t wait to get to work. It’s because I get to paint my own painting and I like applause.We bought a jeweler, Ben Bridge. It was a 4th generation company, with over 100 stores. They were only interested in selling to us. The family didn’t want to sell to others, the employees didn’t want it. I never met him. He didn’t want to sell either, but the family needed it.At Borsheims we have a woman from Zimbabwe. She didn’t even have the benefit of an MBA. We didn’t look at a resume, or grades, or HR recommendations, but were looking for passion and we’ll pay fairly because we don’t want the resent that comes with unfairness. We want people that will work regardless.I got a fax from Pete at Forest River saying this is the type of business you would like to own. He didn’t want to worry about if he died tomorrow, and left his wife and daughter behind. After we made the deal, we had dinner and I brought up the topic of salary. I told him to name whatever number he wanted and I would sign the check. He asked me what I made. I told him $100,000 and he said he didn’t want to make more than me, so we settled on $100,000. Pete called yesterday, and said he wanted to make an offer for another business. We talked for five minutes, I gave him some advice, but I really give them a lot of freedom. I’ve spent $1.7 billion and I’ve never even been to the company, at least I hope it’s there.I can’t look at this group and tell you which 3 are going to be great managers. I can see it after they’ve been doing it for a while. Look at Mrs. B. She had one son involved in the business and 3 daughters not involved. She wanted a way to fairly distribute the proceeds of the business and this solved her problem. She worked until she was 103, and died at 104. She lived two blocks from the store. She left price tags on the furniture at her home because it made her feel more comfortable, like she was in the store. She left Russia and landed in Fort Dodge, Iowa. She saved $500 for 16 years to start this business that has the top 2 furniture stores in the nation. You can’t hire those kinds of people, no matter what you pay them. We’ve been lucky that we’ve never lost a manager to competitors since 1965. Some retire, some were fired, but we give them the opportunity to paint their own canvas.
Austin:
If you could have lunch with one person you have never met, who would it be and why?
Buffett:
I would have to say Isaac Newton or Benjamin Franklin. I’ve met a lot of interesting people and some uninteresting ones, too. The two men had a bigger grasp of the world they lived in. But I don’t think I would pass up an opportunity with Sophia Loren.
Emory:
Mr. Buffett, do you believe that the Federal Reserve is fostering moral hazard thereby leading to the misallocation of capital and subsequent asset bubbles? If so, what are the long term risks?Buffett:
There is always some introduction of moral hazard when government decides to act in favor of the common good versus letting someone fail. There was moral hazard with the bailout of LTCM and there is some aspect of that with the current situation. But it’s hard to measure because the consequences are 15-20 years out. During the 1987 market crash, Greenspan was new to the job and unsure of what would happen. The specialist system got hit, most of them operated on very little capital and were broke. The Fed provided them with more capital. Will that change future behavior? Maybe, but at the time it was the right call. It’s also resulted in the “Too Big to Fail” doctrine. The big banks, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae figured the US Government wouldn’t allow them to fail and the managements of those companies knew that. I would be disinclined to second guess the Fed, they have more information and are trying to do what’s right.
Austin:
Given your business success, your immense fortune, and your celebrity status, how do you stay so down to earth and humble? Are there specific people or lessons you have learned throughout your life that enable you to maintain this outlook?
Buffett:
I was lucky to have the right heroes. Tell me who your heroes are and I’ll tell you how you’ll turn out to be. One of your most important jobs in life will be raising your children. They will learn more from you than they will in graduate school. My father was a huge influence, and later on Graham came along. I was also never let down by my heroes.I had nothing to do with my own success. My father was a securities broker and after the Great Crash, he had no one to call. Consequently, I was born in 1930 in the United States during the time of one of the greatest capital markets. I was born with the wiring for capital asset allocation. I had the right wiring at the right time. Temperament is a large part of my wiring. I was naturally good at it, and I used some feedback to develop it better. There is nothing to be arrogant about. Gates says if I had been born earlier, I would’ve been some animal’s lunch. I can’t run, I can’t climb. I’d be talking about allocating capital and the animal would think, “Those are the kind that taste the best.” You have all won the ovarian lottery. There is no reason to feel guilty about it.I have never given away a dime that has any meaning on how I live. There are people that go to church and they put money in the offering plate that truly makes a difference in how they will live their lives, what they will eat, what presents they will buy for their children. There’s no reason to get puffed up over things you didn’t control.
Emory:
Due to the credit crisis and consequently large write-downs, banks have made it more difficult to lend healthy businesses capital for increasing efficiency, expansion, new projects, etc., thereby potentially becoming the primary agents restricting growth. What are your thoughts on liquidity in the marketplace and the possibly of it contributing to a recession? Also, do you see a potential for financial institutions not currently in the lending business stepping in to take advantage of the reduced supply of capital?
Buffett:
What we are seeing is a huge repricing and evaluation of risk, correcting for problems of the past. I don’t know of good credit propositions that are going unfulfilled. There’s lots of cheap credit for sensible deals, which I don’t define as anything that happened over the last 12, 18 months. A lot of things that didn’t make sense are being washed out of the system. It is painful for bad decisions. Comparatively, this is not a credit crunch. In 1982 the prime rate was 22% and money was very expensive. In the late 60’s, we made a sound deal there wasn’t any money to be had. That’s not the case now. The Fed has opened the window, and rates are down. It doesn’t mean there won’t be a major recession.
Austin:
What are some of your biggest mistakes or regrets?
Buffett:
We’ve made lots of mistakes, but they don’t bother me. We’ve had no regrets. We are in the business of making many decisions and there are bound to be mistakes. There are $10 billion mistakes of omission that no one knows about; they don’t show up in the accounting. In 1994 we paid $400 worth of Berkshire stock for a shoe company. The company is now worth 0, but the stock is worth $3.5 billion. So now, I’m happy to see Berkshire go down since it reduces the size of my mistake. In 1973 Tom Murphy offered us NBC for $35 million, but we turned it down. That was a huge mistake of omission.In my personal life, there are always things I could’ve done differently. But so many good things have happened. It just doesn’t pay to dwell on the bad things. Finding the right spouse is 90% of it. If you are lucky on health and lucky on your spouse, you are a long way home. Getting turned down by HBS was one of the best things that could have happened to me, bad luck can turn out to be good.
Emory:
Could you comment on the current rise of sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East and Asia and how they are playing an increasing role in how corporations raise capital. Is competition from these sources for the cash flows of corporations affecting your investment strategies or opportunities?
Buffett:
Any competition is competition. The situation of sovereign wealth funds is interesting. A lot of it is China bashing, OPEC bashing and plays right into politician’s hands. Today, the US will buy $2 billion more from the world than they buy from us. In exchange we give them little pieces of paper and they have to buy assets. As long as we consume more than we produce we have to let the rest of the world invest in us. We created sovereign wealth funds and that $2 billion gains interest. US funds feel they can get the best terms from these foreign investors and lately, enticed them into buying equity. China wanted to buy Unocal, a 3rd rate oil producer with production overseas in places like India. US Congress went ape and 395 representatives signed an anti-Chinese resolution to block the deal. For 100 years the US companies went around buying the world’s assets and bribing officials, but told China they couldn’t buy Unocal. The Chinese took it, but they didn’t like it. It doesn’t make sense that we are buying foreign assets, and giving them pieces of paper and then telling them what they can’t do with that money. We have created them and I have no objection to them. I recommend an index fund for these sovereign wealth funds. It gives them exposure to the US market, but they won’t get taken by salespeople with bad deals. In economics you always want to say “And then what?”
Austin:
Is the individual investor even capable of assessing the riskiness of securities given the large number of institutions/hedge funds in the market?
Buffett:
I don’t think there is much being overlooked now, but I’m forced to look at big things. That’s the advantage you have over me. A few years ago a friend of mine mentioned that I should look at Korea. We bought Posco for 3-4 times post-tax earnings. I found 20 other companies selling at 2-3 times earnings and strong balance sheets. I diversified because I didn’t know the Korean market as well. We are looking for the very unusual. Occasionally things will happen in a securities market that are extraordinary. I like shooting fish in a barrel, but I like to make sure the water’s drained out.We had that situation a few years ago with the 30 year versus 29 ½ year Treasury bonds. Because of less liquidity, the off-the-run bonds were selling for 30 basis points less, which translates into 3% of principal value. LTCM entered the trade at 10 basis points originally, but they overleveraged and were forced to unwind the position. If you went long/short you could make money really quickly.Markets are efficient most of the time about most things. But for these opportunities, nobody will tell you about them. They won’t be on CNBC and they won’t be in brokerage reports. You have to go find them yourself. In 1951, after I graduated from school, I used Moody’s and S&P manuals as my sources of information. I went through them page by page. I was like a basketball coach looking for 7-footers. I still have to find out if he’s coordinated, and can stay in school. But if someone comes up to me that’s 5’6” and says, “Wait ‘til you see me handle the ball”, I say “No thanks”. On page 1443 of Moody’s, I found Western Insurance Securities. It had earned $21.66 per share 2 years ago, and earned $29.09 last year. Over the past year the stock was selling for between $3 and $13 per share. I still had to do the work to make sure the earnings were valid. The markets will get it right eventually. But they are there. You don’t have to find too many. Finding 10 of these opportunities in your lifetime will make you so rich. But you can’t be wrong. You can’t have any zeroes. A list of big numbers multiplied by zero will equal zero. You can’t go back to “Go”.
Emory:
What do you think of aggregate infrastructure investment to stimulate the economy?
Buffett:
I think the best way to stimulate the economy is to give money to the poor. They will spend it. Don’t give it to guys like me. Infrastructure investment makes sense, but we haven’t done it in a while and it won’t do anything for the next 6-12 months. Infrastructure is not big relative to GDP. We are a consumer-driven society, spending 106% of production.
Austin:
Who do you think will be one of the next greatest investors and are you partial to favoring someone with a similar investment style as yours?
Buffett:
We just finished looking for someone. The Board has 3 candidates to replace me as CEO and 4 candidates to replace me as investor. They are all doing fine where they are, but they would be willing to come over to Berkshire for less pay.In 1969, I wound up my partnership and I had to help people find someone to manage their money. I recommended Bill Ruane of Sequoia Fund, Sandy Gottesman, who is currently on the board at Berkshire, and Walter Schloss, who I wrote about in “The Superinvestors of Graham and Dodds-ville”. There’s no way they could miss.But I don’t know many of the newer investors, they’re not my contemporaries. It’s not enough to just look at track records. They aren’t predictive and there will always be a few people that do well. I know guys who can make 50% a year with $5 million, but not with $1 billion. The problem with guys that do well is they attract so much money that it neutralizes their advantage. It’s hard to identify them, and even harder to make a deal to keep them from attracting other capital. It’s like betting on a 12 year old horse that won at 3 years old. It’s also important to avoid managers who use leverage. It’s the reason that investors with 160 IQs flame out.
Emory:
At the Wesco annual meeting last year, Charlie said, "The best way to get success is to deserve success". Do you recall anything from your experience which best demonstrates how you were able to position yourself to deserve success, and do you have any advice for students on how they can position themselves to deserve success as well?
Buffett:
Behaving decent is a large part of it. Out of school I offered to work for Graham for free and he said I was overpriced. I tried to be useful and visible to him. I gave him stock tips and kept up with him. Almost always good things come from good behavior. Don’t keep score in life. Tom Murphy does not keep score. He keeps doing 20 things for me and I can only hope to return the favor. Keeping score is terrible in marriage and terrible in business. I put myself in the seller’s shoes. With most humans there is a great desire to reciprocate. If you do something for them, they will do 2X for you. How rare is it to work during lunch hours and be the first one there in the morning. You’ll get noticed if you do something extra. It’s good to have a willingness to pitch in when you aren’t going to get credit for it. Charlie and I partnered up in 1959. We always both think we’re right. We disagree but we’ve never fought. And we’ve never held past mistakes over each other’s heads. I recommend reading “Poor Charlie’s Almanack”. It’s amazing, has sold 50,000 copies and it’s still sold independently.
Austin:
Have there been instances in your career where you have been tempted to deviate from your strategy and if so, how did you handle that?
Buffett:
I am not that type. I’m not disciplined. I just naturally want to do things that make sense. In my personal life too, I don’t care what other rich people are doing. I don’t want a 405 foot boat just because someone else has a 400 foot boat. Some of my friends have big boats where 55 people are serving 14. Of those 55, some will be stealing from you, some will be sleeping with each other, and I just don’t want to deal with that. My friends have the boats, so I’m the ultimate freeloader. I don’t need multiple houses. If I wanted to do something wild & crazy I could do it, but Anna Nicole Smith is gone. Reminds me of the story of the 60 year old man that got a 25 year old to marry him. When his friends asked how he did it, he replied, “I told her I was 90.”
Emory:
It seems that the worldwide trend is towards lower corporate tax rates. Do you think that the US risks becoming less competitive if it maintains its current corporate tax rate?
Buffett:
Relative to GDP, government taxation is 18.5% and spending is 20%, so we borrow the balance. The national debt should not be a scary topic and the fact that it’s gone up is fine as long as it’s proportional to GDP. Where do we get that 18.5%? There’s 2.7 trillion in government revenues. 2.2 trillion comes from individuals, and less than 1% of that comes from the estate tax. 1.1 trillion comes from income taxes, with payroll taxes consisting of 900 billion, but it’s capped at the first $100,000 of salary. We want a tax system that encourages greater prosperity, but it needs to take care of the family.We did an informal office survey by looking at the total tax footprint versus the total income. I earned 46 million and paid a tax rate of 17.5%. My rate was the lowest, the average was 33%, and my cleaning lady paid 40%. The system is tilted towards the rich. The Forbes 400 total net worth has gone from 220 billion to 1.54 trillion, an increase of 7-to-1. You see in legislature that there is lobbying carried on by the powerful over issues such as the estate tax and carried interest for private equity investments. We need to flatten income and payroll taxes, and those making under $30,000 shouldn’t be bothered.Let’s imagine that 24 hours before you are born, a genie comes to you and tells you devise a social and economic system. The only catch is that after you designed the system, you would choose a paper from a barrel which would determine your demographics. What objectives would you want? You need to devise a system that creates prosperity. It needs to be a meritocracy, to put the right people in the right place. It needs to have a strong education system, and throw off lots of goods and services. It also needs to not discriminate against women or minorities. Even though the per capita GDP is $47,000, 20% of the population makes less than $20,000. We need to eliminate that fear of sickness or old age. A tax code is the codification of a country’s values. But you can’t kill the golden goose of prosperity.Austin:There is always mention that some of your success could be attributed to not buying in to the Wall Street mania b/c you are in Omaha—what importance do you give to balance as it pertains to work and life and what do you do to maintain your appropriate balance?Buffett:I have so much fun that it’s not work. I get to do what I want, where I want – on a boat, wherever. My wife was responsible for bringing up the children. Neither of us had problems with that arrangement, and it made sense from an Adam Smith “division of labor” perspective. It will be a much tougher choice for women, and always be somewhat unequal. In my own life I did virtually no social functions or meetings that I didn’t want to do. In my adult business life I have never had to make a choice of trading between professional and personal. I have simple pleasures. I play bridge online for 12 hours a week. Bill and I play, he’s “chalengr” and I’m “tbone”.After a talk at Harvard, I told them to work for who they admired the most, so they all become self-employed. It’s important to go to work for someone or some organization you admire. I’ve not seen many males having to make tough choices. But women are the ones who have tough situations.
Students from Emory's Goizueta Business School and McCombs School of Business at UT Austin were invited to come visit Mr. Buffett for a Q&A session. These notes were reproduced to the best of my ability as I heard and as I could recall them from a collection of mine and other students' notes. There is no guarantee that this was exactly what was said, but the intent was to preserve the spirit of the message. Enjoy.
Emory:
With the popularity of "Fortune's Formula" and the Kelly Criterion, there seems to be a lot of debate in the value community regarding diversification vs. concentration. I know where you side in that discussion, but was curious if you could tell us more about your process for position sizing or averaging down.
Buffett:
I have 2 views on diversification. If you are a professional and have confidence, then I would advocate lots of concentration. For everyone else, if it’s not your game, participate in total diversification. The economy will do fine over time. Make sure you don’t buy at the wrong price or the wrong time. That’s what most people should do, buy a cheap index fund and slowly dollar cost average into it. If you try to be just a little bit smart, spending an hour a week investing, you’re liable to be really dumb.If it’s your game, diversification doesn’t make sense. It’s crazy to put money into your 20th choice rather than your 1st choice. “Lebron James” analogy. If you have Lebron James on your team, don’t take him out of the game just to make room for someone else. If you have a harem of 40 women, you never really get to know any of them well.Charlie and I operated mostly with 5 positions. If I were running 50, 100, 200 million, I would have 80% in 5 positions, with 25% for the largest. In 1964 I found a position I was willing to go heavier into, up to 40%. I told investors they could pull their money out. None did. The position was American Express after the Salad Oil Scandal. In 1951 I put the bulk of my net worth into GEICO. Later in 1998, LTCM was in trouble. With the spread between the on-the-run versus off-the-run 30 year Treasury bonds, I would have been willing to put 75% of my portfolio into it. There were various times I would have gone up to 75%, even in the past few years. If it’s your game and you really know your business, you can load up.Over the past 50-60 years, Charlie and I have never permanently lost more than 2% of our personal worth on a position. We’ve suffered quotational loss, 50% movements. That’s why you should never borrow money. We don’t want to get into situations where anyone can pull the rug out from under our feet.In stocks, it’s the only place where when things go on sale, people get unhappy. If I like a business, then it makes sense to buy more at 20 than at 30. If McDonalds reduces the price of hamburgers, I think it’s great.
Austin:
What industry will be the next growth driver in the 21st century and what do you see that supports that?
Buffett:
We don’t worry too much about that. If you’d look at the 1930s, nobody could have predicted how much the automobile and airplane would transform the world. There were 2000 car companies, but now only 3 left in the US and they are hanging on barely. It was tremendous for society, but horrible for investors. Investors would have had to not only identify the right companies, but also identify the right time. The net wealth creation in airlines since Orville Wright has been next to zero. If a capitalist had been at Kitty Hawk and shot him down, would have done us a huge favor. Or look at TV manufacturers. There are hundreds of millions of TV’s, RCA & GE used to produce them, but now there are no American manufacturers left.If you want a great business, take Coca-Cola. The product is unchanged, they sell 1.5 billion 8 ounce servings per day 122 years later. They have a moat; if you have a castle, someone’s going to come after you.Gillette accounts for 70% of razor sales at 80% gross margins and it is the same over time. Men don’t change much. Shaving might be the only creative thing they do, like painting the Sistine Chapel.Snickers has been the #1 candy bar for the past 40 years. If you gave me $1 billion to knock off Snickers, I can’t do it. That’s the test of a good business. You don’t knock off Coke or Gilette. Richard Branson is a marketing genius. He came in with Virgin Cola, we’re not sure what the name means, perhaps it turns you back into one, but he couldn’t knock off Coke. We look for wide moats around great economic castles. Growth is good too, but we prefer strong economics. In the upcoming annual report I have a section titled “The Great, the Good, and the Gruesome” where I talk about these.
Emory:
How do you define happiness and what about your life makes you most happy? When you make good on an investment, do you allow yourself to enjoy that success by getting excited - and on the flip-side, when an investment turns down, do you find yourself equally disappointed - or do you try to remove emotion from your work, as much as possible?
Buffett:
I enjoy what I do, I tap dance to work every day. I work with people I love, doing what I love. The only thing I would pay to get rid of is firing people. I spend my time thinking about the future, not the past. The future is exciting. As Bertrand Russell says, “Success is getting what you want, happiness is wanting what you get.” I won the ovarian lottery the day I was born and so did all of you. We’re all successful, intelligent, educated. To focus on what you don’t have is a terrible mistake. With the gifts all of us have, if you are unhappy, it’s your own fault.I know a woman in her 80’s, a Polish Jew woman forced into a concentration camp with her family but not all of them came out. She says, “I am slow to make friends because when I look at people, I have one question in mind; would they hide me?” If you get to be my age, or younger for that matter, and have a lot of people that would hide you, then you can feel pretty good about how you’ve lived your life. I know people on the Forbes 400 list whose children would not hide them. “He’s in the attic, he’s in the attic.” Some of them keep compensating by joining board seats or getting honorary degrees, but it doesn’t change the fact that no one will give a damn when they are gone. The most powerful force in the world is unconditional love. To horde it is a terrible mistake in life. The more you try to give it away, the more you get it back. At an individual level, it’s important to make sure that for the people that count to you, you count to them.What if you could buy 10% of one of your classmates and their future earnings? You wouldn’t buy the ones with the highest IQ, the best grades, etc, but the most effective. You like people who are generous, go out of their way, straight shooters. Now imagine that you could short 10% of one of your classmates. This part is usually more fun as you start looking around the room. You wouldn’t choose the ones with the poorest grades. Look for people nobody wants to be around, that are obnoxious or like to take all the credit. If you have a 500 HP engine and only get 50 HP out of it, you’ll be beat by someone else that has a 300 HP engine but gets 250 HP output. The difference between potential and output comes from human qualities. You can make a list of the qualities you admire and those you despise. To turn the tables, think if this is the way I react to the qualities on the list, which is the way the world will react to me. You can learn to turn on those qualities you want and turn off those qualities you wish to avoid. The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken. You can’t change at 60; the time to look at that list is now.
Austin:
Why do you think that despite making your methods publicly available, that relatively few people have been able to emulate your success?
Buffett:
I asked Graham the same question. Everyone took his class at Columbia Business School. He used current examples, and by the end of the semester you would have a portfolio that would’ve made you money. Graham lived a life of sharing. He may have had more money hoarding, but lived happier because of it. The money’s just a figure in the paper, perhaps he would’ve died with 86 million instead of 42 million, but it doesn’t really matter. 90% of the people that took his class ended up doing something else.At age 11 I started investing, purchasing three shares of Cities Service Preferred. I had read every book on investing in the Omaha library. I was really into charting and technical analysis. I loved it, but didn’t make any money from it. At 19 I read Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” and it changed my world. Did Ben lose because I read his book? Maybe we competed and he made less money, but it didn’t matter to Graham.The philosophy either takes immediately or it doesn’t at all. The reason gets down to temperament. People want to make money fast, but it doesn’t happen that way. Graham’s philosophy doesn’t promise enough for many people. You don’t know when it will happen, but you just wait for the fat pitches within your circle of competence. It’s not as exciting as guessing whether the stock price will go up the next day. Most investors in internet companies didn’t know the market cap. They were buying because they thought the stock would move, but if you asked them to write “I would buy XYZ company for $6 billion because”, they wouldn’t get halfway through the sentence. It’s the classic tortoise versus hare, bound to work over time. Charlie and I have educated competitors. Most don’t compete with us, though. It’s fine, we have more than enough money.
Emory:
What qualities in managers set them apart as great leaders, in essence, where do you find the right balance between "hard" and "soft" skills?Buffett:We have 45 managers. Some of them we communicate with once a year, some once a month, some everyday. I usually have dinner with the Blumkins every month, and we go on vacation, because we’re friends. What we look for in managers is a passion for the business. They usually come to us. I’ve never bought from a financial seller. We can’t run the business so I am counting on them to behave well; we have very little in the form of contracts. The business needs to continue just the same after I hand them the check as before. My big question is whether he will still get up at 6 AM just the same with $500 million, and continue to send money to Omaha. I have to look them in the eye and decide whether they love the business or they love the money. It’s fine if they love the money, but they have to love the business more. Why do I come in at 7 every morning, can’t wait to get to work. It’s because I get to paint my own painting and I like applause.We bought a jeweler, Ben Bridge. It was a 4th generation company, with over 100 stores. They were only interested in selling to us. The family didn’t want to sell to others, the employees didn’t want it. I never met him. He didn’t want to sell either, but the family needed it.At Borsheims we have a woman from Zimbabwe. She didn’t even have the benefit of an MBA. We didn’t look at a resume, or grades, or HR recommendations, but were looking for passion and we’ll pay fairly because we don’t want the resent that comes with unfairness. We want people that will work regardless.I got a fax from Pete at Forest River saying this is the type of business you would like to own. He didn’t want to worry about if he died tomorrow, and left his wife and daughter behind. After we made the deal, we had dinner and I brought up the topic of salary. I told him to name whatever number he wanted and I would sign the check. He asked me what I made. I told him $100,000 and he said he didn’t want to make more than me, so we settled on $100,000. Pete called yesterday, and said he wanted to make an offer for another business. We talked for five minutes, I gave him some advice, but I really give them a lot of freedom. I’ve spent $1.7 billion and I’ve never even been to the company, at least I hope it’s there.I can’t look at this group and tell you which 3 are going to be great managers. I can see it after they’ve been doing it for a while. Look at Mrs. B. She had one son involved in the business and 3 daughters not involved. She wanted a way to fairly distribute the proceeds of the business and this solved her problem. She worked until she was 103, and died at 104. She lived two blocks from the store. She left price tags on the furniture at her home because it made her feel more comfortable, like she was in the store. She left Russia and landed in Fort Dodge, Iowa. She saved $500 for 16 years to start this business that has the top 2 furniture stores in the nation. You can’t hire those kinds of people, no matter what you pay them. We’ve been lucky that we’ve never lost a manager to competitors since 1965. Some retire, some were fired, but we give them the opportunity to paint their own canvas.
Austin:
If you could have lunch with one person you have never met, who would it be and why?
Buffett:
I would have to say Isaac Newton or Benjamin Franklin. I’ve met a lot of interesting people and some uninteresting ones, too. The two men had a bigger grasp of the world they lived in. But I don’t think I would pass up an opportunity with Sophia Loren.
Emory:
Mr. Buffett, do you believe that the Federal Reserve is fostering moral hazard thereby leading to the misallocation of capital and subsequent asset bubbles? If so, what are the long term risks?Buffett:
There is always some introduction of moral hazard when government decides to act in favor of the common good versus letting someone fail. There was moral hazard with the bailout of LTCM and there is some aspect of that with the current situation. But it’s hard to measure because the consequences are 15-20 years out. During the 1987 market crash, Greenspan was new to the job and unsure of what would happen. The specialist system got hit, most of them operated on very little capital and were broke. The Fed provided them with more capital. Will that change future behavior? Maybe, but at the time it was the right call. It’s also resulted in the “Too Big to Fail” doctrine. The big banks, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae figured the US Government wouldn’t allow them to fail and the managements of those companies knew that. I would be disinclined to second guess the Fed, they have more information and are trying to do what’s right.
Austin:
Given your business success, your immense fortune, and your celebrity status, how do you stay so down to earth and humble? Are there specific people or lessons you have learned throughout your life that enable you to maintain this outlook?
Buffett:
I was lucky to have the right heroes. Tell me who your heroes are and I’ll tell you how you’ll turn out to be. One of your most important jobs in life will be raising your children. They will learn more from you than they will in graduate school. My father was a huge influence, and later on Graham came along. I was also never let down by my heroes.I had nothing to do with my own success. My father was a securities broker and after the Great Crash, he had no one to call. Consequently, I was born in 1930 in the United States during the time of one of the greatest capital markets. I was born with the wiring for capital asset allocation. I had the right wiring at the right time. Temperament is a large part of my wiring. I was naturally good at it, and I used some feedback to develop it better. There is nothing to be arrogant about. Gates says if I had been born earlier, I would’ve been some animal’s lunch. I can’t run, I can’t climb. I’d be talking about allocating capital and the animal would think, “Those are the kind that taste the best.” You have all won the ovarian lottery. There is no reason to feel guilty about it.I have never given away a dime that has any meaning on how I live. There are people that go to church and they put money in the offering plate that truly makes a difference in how they will live their lives, what they will eat, what presents they will buy for their children. There’s no reason to get puffed up over things you didn’t control.
Emory:
Due to the credit crisis and consequently large write-downs, banks have made it more difficult to lend healthy businesses capital for increasing efficiency, expansion, new projects, etc., thereby potentially becoming the primary agents restricting growth. What are your thoughts on liquidity in the marketplace and the possibly of it contributing to a recession? Also, do you see a potential for financial institutions not currently in the lending business stepping in to take advantage of the reduced supply of capital?
Buffett:
What we are seeing is a huge repricing and evaluation of risk, correcting for problems of the past. I don’t know of good credit propositions that are going unfulfilled. There’s lots of cheap credit for sensible deals, which I don’t define as anything that happened over the last 12, 18 months. A lot of things that didn’t make sense are being washed out of the system. It is painful for bad decisions. Comparatively, this is not a credit crunch. In 1982 the prime rate was 22% and money was very expensive. In the late 60’s, we made a sound deal there wasn’t any money to be had. That’s not the case now. The Fed has opened the window, and rates are down. It doesn’t mean there won’t be a major recession.
Austin:
What are some of your biggest mistakes or regrets?
Buffett:
We’ve made lots of mistakes, but they don’t bother me. We’ve had no regrets. We are in the business of making many decisions and there are bound to be mistakes. There are $10 billion mistakes of omission that no one knows about; they don’t show up in the accounting. In 1994 we paid $400 worth of Berkshire stock for a shoe company. The company is now worth 0, but the stock is worth $3.5 billion. So now, I’m happy to see Berkshire go down since it reduces the size of my mistake. In 1973 Tom Murphy offered us NBC for $35 million, but we turned it down. That was a huge mistake of omission.In my personal life, there are always things I could’ve done differently. But so many good things have happened. It just doesn’t pay to dwell on the bad things. Finding the right spouse is 90% of it. If you are lucky on health and lucky on your spouse, you are a long way home. Getting turned down by HBS was one of the best things that could have happened to me, bad luck can turn out to be good.
Emory:
Could you comment on the current rise of sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East and Asia and how they are playing an increasing role in how corporations raise capital. Is competition from these sources for the cash flows of corporations affecting your investment strategies or opportunities?
Buffett:
Any competition is competition. The situation of sovereign wealth funds is interesting. A lot of it is China bashing, OPEC bashing and plays right into politician’s hands. Today, the US will buy $2 billion more from the world than they buy from us. In exchange we give them little pieces of paper and they have to buy assets. As long as we consume more than we produce we have to let the rest of the world invest in us. We created sovereign wealth funds and that $2 billion gains interest. US funds feel they can get the best terms from these foreign investors and lately, enticed them into buying equity. China wanted to buy Unocal, a 3rd rate oil producer with production overseas in places like India. US Congress went ape and 395 representatives signed an anti-Chinese resolution to block the deal. For 100 years the US companies went around buying the world’s assets and bribing officials, but told China they couldn’t buy Unocal. The Chinese took it, but they didn’t like it. It doesn’t make sense that we are buying foreign assets, and giving them pieces of paper and then telling them what they can’t do with that money. We have created them and I have no objection to them. I recommend an index fund for these sovereign wealth funds. It gives them exposure to the US market, but they won’t get taken by salespeople with bad deals. In economics you always want to say “And then what?”
Austin:
Is the individual investor even capable of assessing the riskiness of securities given the large number of institutions/hedge funds in the market?
Buffett:
I don’t think there is much being overlooked now, but I’m forced to look at big things. That’s the advantage you have over me. A few years ago a friend of mine mentioned that I should look at Korea. We bought Posco for 3-4 times post-tax earnings. I found 20 other companies selling at 2-3 times earnings and strong balance sheets. I diversified because I didn’t know the Korean market as well. We are looking for the very unusual. Occasionally things will happen in a securities market that are extraordinary. I like shooting fish in a barrel, but I like to make sure the water’s drained out.We had that situation a few years ago with the 30 year versus 29 ½ year Treasury bonds. Because of less liquidity, the off-the-run bonds were selling for 30 basis points less, which translates into 3% of principal value. LTCM entered the trade at 10 basis points originally, but they overleveraged and were forced to unwind the position. If you went long/short you could make money really quickly.Markets are efficient most of the time about most things. But for these opportunities, nobody will tell you about them. They won’t be on CNBC and they won’t be in brokerage reports. You have to go find them yourself. In 1951, after I graduated from school, I used Moody’s and S&P manuals as my sources of information. I went through them page by page. I was like a basketball coach looking for 7-footers. I still have to find out if he’s coordinated, and can stay in school. But if someone comes up to me that’s 5’6” and says, “Wait ‘til you see me handle the ball”, I say “No thanks”. On page 1443 of Moody’s, I found Western Insurance Securities. It had earned $21.66 per share 2 years ago, and earned $29.09 last year. Over the past year the stock was selling for between $3 and $13 per share. I still had to do the work to make sure the earnings were valid. The markets will get it right eventually. But they are there. You don’t have to find too many. Finding 10 of these opportunities in your lifetime will make you so rich. But you can’t be wrong. You can’t have any zeroes. A list of big numbers multiplied by zero will equal zero. You can’t go back to “Go”.
Emory:
What do you think of aggregate infrastructure investment to stimulate the economy?
Buffett:
I think the best way to stimulate the economy is to give money to the poor. They will spend it. Don’t give it to guys like me. Infrastructure investment makes sense, but we haven’t done it in a while and it won’t do anything for the next 6-12 months. Infrastructure is not big relative to GDP. We are a consumer-driven society, spending 106% of production.
Austin:
Who do you think will be one of the next greatest investors and are you partial to favoring someone with a similar investment style as yours?
Buffett:
We just finished looking for someone. The Board has 3 candidates to replace me as CEO and 4 candidates to replace me as investor. They are all doing fine where they are, but they would be willing to come over to Berkshire for less pay.In 1969, I wound up my partnership and I had to help people find someone to manage their money. I recommended Bill Ruane of Sequoia Fund, Sandy Gottesman, who is currently on the board at Berkshire, and Walter Schloss, who I wrote about in “The Superinvestors of Graham and Dodds-ville”. There’s no way they could miss.But I don’t know many of the newer investors, they’re not my contemporaries. It’s not enough to just look at track records. They aren’t predictive and there will always be a few people that do well. I know guys who can make 50% a year with $5 million, but not with $1 billion. The problem with guys that do well is they attract so much money that it neutralizes their advantage. It’s hard to identify them, and even harder to make a deal to keep them from attracting other capital. It’s like betting on a 12 year old horse that won at 3 years old. It’s also important to avoid managers who use leverage. It’s the reason that investors with 160 IQs flame out.
Emory:
At the Wesco annual meeting last year, Charlie said, "The best way to get success is to deserve success". Do you recall anything from your experience which best demonstrates how you were able to position yourself to deserve success, and do you have any advice for students on how they can position themselves to deserve success as well?
Buffett:
Behaving decent is a large part of it. Out of school I offered to work for Graham for free and he said I was overpriced. I tried to be useful and visible to him. I gave him stock tips and kept up with him. Almost always good things come from good behavior. Don’t keep score in life. Tom Murphy does not keep score. He keeps doing 20 things for me and I can only hope to return the favor. Keeping score is terrible in marriage and terrible in business. I put myself in the seller’s shoes. With most humans there is a great desire to reciprocate. If you do something for them, they will do 2X for you. How rare is it to work during lunch hours and be the first one there in the morning. You’ll get noticed if you do something extra. It’s good to have a willingness to pitch in when you aren’t going to get credit for it. Charlie and I partnered up in 1959. We always both think we’re right. We disagree but we’ve never fought. And we’ve never held past mistakes over each other’s heads. I recommend reading “Poor Charlie’s Almanack”. It’s amazing, has sold 50,000 copies and it’s still sold independently.
Austin:
Have there been instances in your career where you have been tempted to deviate from your strategy and if so, how did you handle that?
Buffett:
I am not that type. I’m not disciplined. I just naturally want to do things that make sense. In my personal life too, I don’t care what other rich people are doing. I don’t want a 405 foot boat just because someone else has a 400 foot boat. Some of my friends have big boats where 55 people are serving 14. Of those 55, some will be stealing from you, some will be sleeping with each other, and I just don’t want to deal with that. My friends have the boats, so I’m the ultimate freeloader. I don’t need multiple houses. If I wanted to do something wild & crazy I could do it, but Anna Nicole Smith is gone. Reminds me of the story of the 60 year old man that got a 25 year old to marry him. When his friends asked how he did it, he replied, “I told her I was 90.”
Emory:
It seems that the worldwide trend is towards lower corporate tax rates. Do you think that the US risks becoming less competitive if it maintains its current corporate tax rate?
Buffett:
Relative to GDP, government taxation is 18.5% and spending is 20%, so we borrow the balance. The national debt should not be a scary topic and the fact that it’s gone up is fine as long as it’s proportional to GDP. Where do we get that 18.5%? There’s 2.7 trillion in government revenues. 2.2 trillion comes from individuals, and less than 1% of that comes from the estate tax. 1.1 trillion comes from income taxes, with payroll taxes consisting of 900 billion, but it’s capped at the first $100,000 of salary. We want a tax system that encourages greater prosperity, but it needs to take care of the family.We did an informal office survey by looking at the total tax footprint versus the total income. I earned 46 million and paid a tax rate of 17.5%. My rate was the lowest, the average was 33%, and my cleaning lady paid 40%. The system is tilted towards the rich. The Forbes 400 total net worth has gone from 220 billion to 1.54 trillion, an increase of 7-to-1. You see in legislature that there is lobbying carried on by the powerful over issues such as the estate tax and carried interest for private equity investments. We need to flatten income and payroll taxes, and those making under $30,000 shouldn’t be bothered.Let’s imagine that 24 hours before you are born, a genie comes to you and tells you devise a social and economic system. The only catch is that after you designed the system, you would choose a paper from a barrel which would determine your demographics. What objectives would you want? You need to devise a system that creates prosperity. It needs to be a meritocracy, to put the right people in the right place. It needs to have a strong education system, and throw off lots of goods and services. It also needs to not discriminate against women or minorities. Even though the per capita GDP is $47,000, 20% of the population makes less than $20,000. We need to eliminate that fear of sickness or old age. A tax code is the codification of a country’s values. But you can’t kill the golden goose of prosperity.Austin:There is always mention that some of your success could be attributed to not buying in to the Wall Street mania b/c you are in Omaha—what importance do you give to balance as it pertains to work and life and what do you do to maintain your appropriate balance?Buffett:I have so much fun that it’s not work. I get to do what I want, where I want – on a boat, wherever. My wife was responsible for bringing up the children. Neither of us had problems with that arrangement, and it made sense from an Adam Smith “division of labor” perspective. It will be a much tougher choice for women, and always be somewhat unequal. In my own life I did virtually no social functions or meetings that I didn’t want to do. In my adult business life I have never had to make a choice of trading between professional and personal. I have simple pleasures. I play bridge online for 12 hours a week. Bill and I play, he’s “chalengr” and I’m “tbone”.After a talk at Harvard, I told them to work for who they admired the most, so they all become self-employed. It’s important to go to work for someone or some organization you admire. I’ve not seen many males having to make tough choices. But women are the ones who have tough situations.
国内最新打油诗：中国股市
熊市不涨，牛市不涨，好股烂股都不涨，割肉就涨，物价不盼也涨。
利空被套，利好被套，新手老手全被套，成交即套，主力总是有套。
养老钱，保命钱，入市炒钱，无不赔钱。
证监会，银监会，经常开会，好象很会
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新基民，都是算净值的；
老基民，都是算增率的；
老油条，都是听广播的；
生瓜蛋，都是捂大盘的；
唱多的，都是上贼船的；
唱空的，都是受过骗的；
赔钱的，都是勤算帐的；
盈利的，都是非常懒的。
中国证监会忠告股民，近期不要进入股市，否则：
笑着进去，哭着出来
站着进去，躺着出来
处女进去，大妈出来
老板进去，打工出来
别墅进去，草棚出来
鳄鱼进去，壁虎出来
蟒蛇进去，蚯蚓出来
老虎进去，小猫出来
苍鹰进去，苍蝇出来
人才进去，饭桶出来
博士进去，白痴出来
男人进去，太监出来
武松进去， 肉松出来
姚明进去，潘长江出来
宝马进去，自行车出来
西服进去，三点式出来
富翁进去，叫化子出来
牵狗进去，被狗牵出来
刘翔进去，范跑跑出来
奥运会进去，残奥会出来
爱着国进去，叛变逃出来
健康着进去，残废着出来
坐火箭进去，坐潜艇出来
杨百万进去，杨白劳出来
欲投资进去，想投河出来
频送秋波进去，目光呆滞出来
打着饱嗝进去，饿昏了头出来
鲜花盛开进去，残花败柳出来
做着美梦进去，一场恶梦出来
想买房子进去，卖了房子出来
花天酒地进去，哭天喊地出来
欢欢喜喜进去，哭哭啼啼出来
开着小车进去，拉着板车出来
自作聪明进去，自认倒霉出来
探头探脑进去，连滚带爬出来
人模人样进去，不三不四出来
握着双枪进去，举着双手出来
听着故事进去，做着噩梦出来
看着鱼饵进去，咬着鱼钩出来
坐着邮船进去，划着舢板出来
系着领带进去，扎着草绳出来
穿着名牌进去，光着屁股出来
喝燕翅鲍进去，嚼萝卜干出来
风风火火进去，疯疯颠颠出来
满面红光进去，鼻青脸肿出来
大腹便便进去，骨瘦如柴出来
火眼金睛进去，眼冒金星出来
学巴菲特进去，被扒了皮出来............
利空被套，利好被套，新手老手全被套，成交即套，主力总是有套。
养老钱，保命钱，入市炒钱，无不赔钱。
证监会，银监会，经常开会，好象很会
踏空的，都是看K线的；
站岗的，都是玩波段的；
抄底的，都是最有钱的；
割肉的，都是借贷款的；
新基民，都是算净值的；
老基民，都是算增率的；
老油条，都是听广播的；
生瓜蛋，都是捂大盘的；
唱多的，都是上贼船的；
唱空的，都是受过骗的；
赔钱的，都是勤算帐的；
盈利的，都是非常懒的。
中国证监会忠告股民，近期不要进入股市，否则：
笑着进去，哭着出来
站着进去，躺着出来
处女进去，大妈出来
老板进去，打工出来
别墅进去，草棚出来
鳄鱼进去，壁虎出来
蟒蛇进去，蚯蚓出来
老虎进去，小猫出来
苍鹰进去，苍蝇出来
人才进去，饭桶出来
博士进去，白痴出来
男人进去，太监出来
武松进去， 肉松出来
姚明进去，潘长江出来
宝马进去，自行车出来
西服进去，三点式出来
富翁进去，叫化子出来
牵狗进去，被狗牵出来
刘翔进去，范跑跑出来
奥运会进去，残奥会出来
爱着国进去，叛变逃出来
健康着进去，残废着出来
坐火箭进去，坐潜艇出来
杨百万进去，杨白劳出来
欲投资进去，想投河出来
频送秋波进去，目光呆滞出来
打着饱嗝进去，饿昏了头出来
鲜花盛开进去，残花败柳出来
做着美梦进去，一场恶梦出来
想买房子进去，卖了房子出来
花天酒地进去，哭天喊地出来
欢欢喜喜进去，哭哭啼啼出来
开着小车进去，拉着板车出来
自作聪明进去，自认倒霉出来
探头探脑进去，连滚带爬出来
人模人样进去，不三不四出来
握着双枪进去，举着双手出来
听着故事进去，做着噩梦出来
看着鱼饵进去，咬着鱼钩出来
坐着邮船进去，划着舢板出来
系着领带进去，扎着草绳出来
穿着名牌进去，光着屁股出来
喝燕翅鲍进去，嚼萝卜干出来
风风火火进去，疯疯颠颠出来
满面红光进去，鼻青脸肿出来
大腹便便进去，骨瘦如柴出来
火眼金睛进去，眼冒金星出来
学巴菲特进去，被扒了皮出来............
Bill Gates has left the building
Bill gates faded from the scene at Microsoft. Here is what some leading journals say about his insights:
From the New York Times:"Mr. Gates grasped and deployed two related concepts on a scale no one ever had in the past: the power of network effects and the value of establishing a technology platform.
"http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/27/technology/27soft.html?_r=1&scp=5&sq=bill+gates&st=nyt&oref=slogin
From the Economist:"As with many great innovations, Mr Gates’s vision has come to seem so obvious that it is hard to imagine the world any other way. Yet, early on, he grasped two things that were far from obvious at the time, and he grasped them more clearly and pursued them more fiercely than his rivals did at Commodore, MITS or even Apple.The first was that computing could be a high-volume, low-margin business.Mr Gates also realised that making hardware and writing software could be stronger as separate businesses."
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11622119
From the New York Times:"Mr. Gates grasped and deployed two related concepts on a scale no one ever had in the past: the power of network effects and the value of establishing a technology platform.
"http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/27/technology/27soft.html?_r=1&scp=5&sq=bill+gates&st=nyt&oref=slogin
From the Economist:"As with many great innovations, Mr Gates’s vision has come to seem so obvious that it is hard to imagine the world any other way. Yet, early on, he grasped two things that were far from obvious at the time, and he grasped them more clearly and pursued them more fiercely than his rivals did at Commodore, MITS or even Apple.The first was that computing could be a high-volume, low-margin business.Mr Gates also realised that making hardware and writing software could be stronger as separate businesses."
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11622119
老中一号语录 (1)
老中一号语录
(ZT)Miat: The following comments are all posted by 老中一号. By reposting his comments, my purpose is to understand his thinking. I by no means agree with all his comments. However, he is still one of the better qualified posters on the web.
===============================================================
2007-11
长期利息不是联储决定的联储就管短期ARM利息，这两次减息后长期30年房贷利息根本没跌。再减息的话反而要升，现在谁那么傻瓜肯借钱出去30年后收回米披索？就算大家都用ARM，米国能够联储零利息30年？用低利息ARM死撑买房就等于吸毒，利息一涨就歇菜，所以短期利息一定要越来越低才能撑下去，这种情况能够维持30年？10年都了不起了。东瀛奉行零利息多年了，结果房事怎么样？要跌一样跌你去查一查历史，看看米国的历史上有多少年30年房贷是10%以上的，或者靠近10%。2003-2005的30年房贷利息是联储成立以来最低的。 2007下面是1971年到现在的利率http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm如果联储不顾通胀，就把利息降到地板上的话，那么米披索也会变成跟废纸差不多，米披索的房价毫无意义，得看欧金角度的米国放价值多少。如果你在欧洲挣欧金，在米国借米披索买房，那会赚。要是在米国挣米披索，还米披索，根本没有油水可捞。
===============
因为这些新“发明”的贷款本身就不应该存在，不过是死撑的工具。现在在弯曲，自杀式Neg-am贷款已经没有了，而且在可见的将来也不会再出现，因为没有投资人。其实人类上演的一幕幕，全在历史中能找到相应的例子，所以文明的智慧在于记忆，因为人的智商并没有进展太多，大家今天能想到的，几十年，几百年，几千年以前都有过人想到而且试验过了。
=============
2005-7-05
上海房地产已经是上海第一产业地方稅收過分依賴房產在全國已成為普遍現象。有數據顯示,在上海、江蘇,包括土地出讓金在內的房地產稅費收入已占地方財政的30%。2004年,上海房地產及其相關行業拉動上海GDP增長了19.5%。 桑塔纳工资单上网你没看过啊？ 5000来块基本工资，奖金福利双薪4金不是钞票啊？上海宣布的工资哪里包括外来人口，当然外来人口里面很多民工，反正伊拉买不起房子就不管了。外来人口里头的高薪人士呢？侬佛晓得很多外派的工资根本不在上海出，因为中土国税率高，更加不要说呆胞港度，账面上看都在亏钱的。所以你看工资肯定要划扁，本老中倒不是说上海土人有钱，上海土人还没出国的也没啥出息，但是在上海工作的不能就看工资，看工资根本看不出来谁在上海买3000美金一平米的楼。上海人特殊材料啊，东京上下班四小时来往千叶的比比皆是，就是上海人牛叉，非要住环线附近，住金桥也可以嘛，上班时间多一点开通班车就完事了嘛。硅谷这里要翻山越岭来回三小时上班的都大有人在，凭什么上海人就非要两小时内上班，好吃懒做。上海是金融中心？乏要闹国际笑话，何德何能做金融中心？就靠几栋浦东大楼？工业老早搬去昆山苏州江浙一带了，上海几年以来已经完成产业空心化，现在就靠房地产支撑。要是没有房地产，上海就鬼城一个，谁跑去上海呼吸废气？所以为了他的前途，还是希望上海房产不要跌，最好稳中有升，要不然恐怕他要搬去昆山上班，就不必担心能不能在上海买房。 500强也会撤资呀。Intel不就不去上海去成都了吗？ 3M联华原来不是500强啊。本老中要说明的就是上海产业空洞化已经发生了，现在能够支撑上海的就是房产业，没有房产业上海去喝西北风吧。不要说上海，六月份的统计外资FDI在中国64以来首次下降，风向开始转了，所以有个房产业支撑大局还不捧着点，等到撤资成为规模趋势的时候再开始护着房产业就完蛋了。房地产是唯一搬不走拿不掉的产业，哪像外资机器一搬走得轻巧。本老中没说Intel撤资上海，而是不去上海去成都。你自己不是说租金不上涨吗？那只能说明营商城本不在于房价，在于上海人工资过高，既然上海人工资那么高才造成房价上涨，你打击房地产干什么，打击工资不就房价下来了吗？不知道谁不讲逻辑，因果关系全颠倒了。你当然不希望上海工资下跌咯，但是又希望上海房价下跌，有这么美好的事吗？本老中也想湾区房子下跌他一半本老中好买多两栋收租呢。你来来去去说租金不上涨，老百姓租房不能过日子啊？租来的房子不能住人吗？反正在上海买房也就70年土地租用，房子70年后倒塌不倒塌都不知道，一样也是租，干吗要买？说来说去就是买不了房子在那里撒赖，又不愿意降低生活水平住远一点。怎么不跟其他大城市比一比工资比、交通时间等等。租金不涨，人家都给营商成本给逼出上海，不是工资过高是什么？工资+灰色收入要是不够高，上海的“天价”房子谁买？本来大城市的房子就不应该是老百姓买得起的，曼哈顿、三藩市有多少老百姓能买楼？这里好多人都住着rent-control房子一辈子还不是好好活下来？就上海人要求特别高，非要全民能买房子，美国的房产拥有率也不过是人口的60%而已！你说来说去就是老百姓不能买房子，那就租吗，反正租金不涨，都什么心态，租的房子特别烂？上海这种地区，环线以内的房子10%的人口买得起才是正常的，其他的住离开市区中心一个半两个小时车程的就行了。就是不明白先在上海人的心态，怎么一个两个要求那么高，都当自己是谁了？本老中父母在上海熬了一辈子，还当上了干部，才不过在环线内分配了两套房子，现在赤手空拳到上海打天下的多着，要是人人都买得起，上海的房子都该200层高了。
=======================
2007-11-20
本老中不赞成你拿开饭钱去买黄金，更加不赞成你去买期指，借钱买。黄金素来有富人投资的称号，原因就是黄金储藏要花钱，没有利息，而且震荡极大，你要拿得稳，不然的震两震你就给震出去血本无归，在黄金大牛市输到内裤都没有的例子很多，就是在震荡中给甩出去的。黄金是不是太迟呢？等到主流媒体，真人秀都有跟黄金有关的主题，property ladder变成gold ladder，CNBC开始有黄金专栏Cramer跟你分析哪种金币最升值，哪只金矿股最有潜力你就得逃命了。所以本老中以主流媒体以及封面作为反向指数，05年所有的主流媒体都是关于怎么炒房挣钱，真人秀炒房秀出了5个，05年就是米国房子见顶。最稳妥的是买实金，有多少闲钱就买多少安士，买了就别看，不然你就做不了稳拿，搞不好会心脏病，06年黄金从720掉到580，很多人都受不了给震出去了，而以前的牛市里面下三分一再登顶是常有的事，所以心理素质要好。如果钱不多，买GLD/IAU，这是最流通的trading工具，大乱的时候你到底能拿到多少黄金是个大问号。闲钱多了，买加拿大的黄金储备基金，CEF/GTU是同一家公司，已经干了20多年买金币储存，而且经历过黄金大熊市都没有倒闭，可以信任。但是两种都是封闭型，也就是黄金震荡起来他的幅度还要大，NAV跟市价会脱节，产生premium/discount，心脏要更加好。好处是，他的黄金是实实在在存在的，而且如果万一米国政府再次充公私人黄金（上一次就是FDR)，加拿大的黄金可以幸免。如果你钱再多，能够有起码10万米披索放黄金里，就能去澳洲买西澳政府的Perth Mint Depository Service，他有个不设投资限额的Certificate手续费太高。这是最保险的，由西澳政府完全持有的Perth Mint来帮你托管买的黄金白银白金，如果西澳政府要骗你的话估计GLD/IAU/CEF等等私人基金全部都会开骗。本老中的黄金投资组合包括以上所有类别，狡兔三窟，因为真的乱起来哪个好用到时才知道，不过乱成那样本老中就不囤金囤枪药了。要不就在后院挖个坑埋下去，上面立个牌子，此地无金100两，或者自己弄个保险夹万，买保险。机构存黄金，有信誉的都有自己的金库夹万，自己的保安，好像Perth Mint那样，不然的话连Morgan Stanley都会骗人，前一阵子Morgan Stanley才给顾客告，说托他们保管的白银不翼而飞，查存储的时候都不存在。本老中偶像买白银的时候全部都是实物交托，他一度囤积了世界地面上1/6的白银，结果花费实在太高（想想哪里储存这一大堆实物），结果在手持白银价格翻倍的情况下他卖了都只能打平，终于花钱买了教训，贵金属不能这样玩法，不然玩死自己。弯曲老印就是家里很多黄金，曾经有过不少入门盗窃就是针对这些老印的。
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2007-11-05
中石油已经见顶，可以全部放掉不回头了本老中运气不错，上个星期才在H股上放掉一半，这个星期的调整就开始了。本老中不会加仓，暂时不动，如果未来一个星期内各种党的喉舌报不重申自由行南下，那本老中就此告别，但是本老中预计党的喉舌报应该很快就会有反应。中石油已经世界之巅（癫），在这个位子上能走的方向只有一个，下，最后那点油水已经不值得等。石油将近峰值的说法已经存在3-4年了但是人类不见棺材不流眼泪，今年回过头来看，石油峰值产量的年份是2006年，然而2007年暑假的时候大家还在讨论石油会不会掉到30米披索，今天来看，这个根本就没有讨论余地了，现在大家关心的是石油是什么时候，而不是是否，会破100。粮食到现在，所处的就是石油在2006年的时候，大家以为牛市就要结束，其实不过是处在牛市二期初期，而后还会有调整。玉米96年就冲过450了，现在那么多ethanol fuel要上马，400米披索是不是很便宜？大豆88年就见过1000了，现在也不过是这么上下，是不是很便宜？唯一较高价的就是小麦，但是以96年的700来说，也不算贵。不管他global warming, global cooling,.唯一可以确定的就是地球气候进入了不稳定期，大旱大涝随时发生。气候不确定期，加上起码25亿人口营养提高，不赌粮食赌什么？
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2007-11-10
要是移民都不来米国的，米国霸权也就走到头了应该消灭的是米国本土好吃懒做的老黑老白垃圾。第一代移民，无论是什么背景，什么途径，什么教育智商，综合起来的素质都比本土平均强，因为本土的没有这种动力，也没有这种冒险精神。要是本老中立国，希望这个国家的国民二代为止，三代就要赶出去了，不然的话不管祖宗多强，几代以后变垃圾的可能性大大增加
2007-11-30
房租不会大涨的原因是房租有很多替代品，可以两三家挤在一起，可以搬回去跟父母住，可以大房子搬小房子。米国现有的剩余房屋，要一代人才能消化掉。但是，市中心的最好的地区房租会上升，因为交通费问题工作方便问题。那些远一点的地区差一点的，跌起来没底。刚性的资源只有粮食、能源，工业金属都要大跌。
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2008-01-29
能在网上说的发财路子，一般都是你跟着做了他发财然后你破财。发财没什么捷径，把借贷降到你物质欲望内可以容忍的最低，存钱（不是存米披索），然后等待泡沫爆破资产大贱卖的那一天。预先想好要买什么，做功课，跟踪，学习怎么判断谷底。然后的事就容易了，困难的是存钱的这一步，跟耐心等待爆破的这一步。存在比米披索更加保值的币值或者资产上存钱的意思就是存财富，当纸币可以滥发的时候，单纯存“钱”是没有意义==================================
2007-12-10
经济衰退不可避免，大家还是早做准备吧现在的问题是大萧条要维持多长，而不是什么衰退房贷远远没完，接着汽车贷、信用卡贷一环接一环，接着婴儿潮退休医疗劳保无法开销，本老中希望他是一起爆炸一杆子烂到底然后从谷底爬起来，快倒快来，别耽误咱们的青春。本老中最最害怕的就是政治家拖拖拉拉，把这个过程延长好像东瀛那样来个10几20年，把咱们的黄金年代都给耗进去就倒霉透顶了。90年时，东瀛的全民储蓄率是14%，米国今天是-3%，东瀛是一亿中产社会均富治安良好，米国是贫富悬殊穷人有枪差区治安恶劣，东瀛当年工业基础完整，现在米国工业已经掏空，东瀛90年公立基础教育良好国际学生考试排名高，米国公立教育系统接近崩溃国际学生考试排名是个笑话，萧条起来米国的结局比东瀛差，而且是差的多，真要走向10几年的萧条，本老中就要考虑长期撤退了。米国的金融中心，哈哈哈哈，揭穿了就是骗局中心这种次按影响，比安隆倒闭还要恶劣得多，这是整个系统出了问题，不是一家两家公司骗帐瞒天过海。你认为被骗的国外投资者在余生还会不会买任何米国私营机构的定息工具？评级还有没有人相信？金融就是一个信字，信任打破了要很多年才能建立起来。现在的米国金融中心已经变成狗尾巴摇狗，连工业都掏空了还要金融血液干吗？现在有个学说叫做de-couple，就是说美帝萧条其他国家不受影响继续发展。本老中虽然对此说比较怀疑，还是认为不能完全抹杀其可能的。然而米帝萧条对全世界负面影响一定会有（枫叶国不都要跟着减息了嘛？），到底米帝消费支撑了很多新兴国家的工业。其他国家的受影响程度要看1）对米帝的外贸依附2）跟米帝在各个方面，特别是金融方面的关联本老中倒是希望全世界能够脱离米帝的萧条影响，咱们也能多几个地方逃串。本老中是盼短期萧条，但不希望长期短期对于本老中个人的投资有益，可以重新洗牌，说不定就洗上米国奴隶主地位了。但是长期萧条的话，社会影响不可低估，洗牌的方式就是整个社会价值观、排序、组织那么洗，在那种洗牌情况下很难预测，搞不好又被清零了。现在不是希望不希望，还是害怕真的搞成长期其实咱们老中们来到米国开垦，刚好是在米国最鼎盛往下坡走的时候，这个周期不是一个简单的周期，而是积累了很多年没还的老帐随时一起还，所以咱们老中新移民比老米乐观得多，因为他们看着米国慢慢在实质上走下坡。这个谷底在哪里心里没底。
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2007-11-19
什么是殖民主义？ 定义是外来者到当地，获取比当地人比例更大资源，奴役原居民如果获取的比例相当，那就是贸易，不是殖民。居住不居住不是条件之一，不然的话外籍居民都是殖民者？动机得有能力表现出来才行啊老中在中东混的很多，特别是女老中出去慰安的，你要说他们的动机难道不是发大财，最好能混个什么油国上层4个荆，最后还不都是小商贩混日子，没有达成殖民的目标，所以还不能算作殖民。殖民不殖民就是要看结果。去其他国家定居的，最高目标成就全都是殖民，不过很少人能混成那个目标而已。白大哥要假装温情脉脉，等到经济差撕下面具的时候就知道到底白大哥怕不怕非法移民了，米国可是三K发源地。
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Comment about 宋鸿兵宋鸿兵也是个“刘太医”
作者：老中一号
自称是房地美的顾问，其实是软件合同工, contractor是也，还大言不惭说自己给多家著名米国投行作顾问，顾问就是老中们指contractor的诿称，跟陈测试跑到交大去自称作了首席工程师一个调调。 中土国老中，能混进华尔街留在纽约（不是给扔到香港或者北京）做business side的没有几个，一说出来大家都认识，宋鸿兵根本不是其中一员，连进香港的投行都轮不到他。刘太医这种低级骗子能掌握舆论，说明中国知识阶层出问题 米国也有很多愚民，红脖子州一抓一大把，布什连续当选就能说明问题。但是一个毫无背景、资历、说话有违基本科学常理的人断断不可能登上大雅之堂。说的话可能难以验证，但是吹牛的履历不消几天，全部给抓个正着。 中土国愚民多，但是一个国家总要有一些把关的人。刘太医说话根本就没谱，不需要什么特别的医学常识，有点基本分析头脑、科学常识的就知道他在胡说八道。普通老中没这个能耐，做编辑的老中呢？怎么把关能力也跟个小学毕业的一样。 宋鸿兵侃的都是米国的东西，把关把不了也就正常，刘太医侃的都是老中的养生道理，这都把不了关就奇哉怪也。前一个还能叫做高级骗子，刘那种是地摊的水平，居然把那么多认字的人骗得一愣一愣真是悲哀。 其实看一个人是否骗子很简单，只要这个一代老中说自己在米国成就如何彰显就知道了，说得越彰显的就越是骗子，刘太医居然说里根的大肠癌是他儿子治好的，这种话一说出来其他根本不需要听就知道他在骗人。其实一代中土国老中在米国爬得高的没几个，真的做到骗子说的层次无一例外是二代老中，不过他们也不会在中土国出现。 以后验证骗子就一条：谁说自己在米国成就超卓声名显赫，然后跑到中土国出中文书，谁就是骗子。
老中一号语录 (2)
老中一号语录 (2)
老中一号：问有多少米披索才足够是个伪问题
1。米披索不是一个稳定的store of value。现在高峰还没到来，FDIC, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae全部出现周转问题，要印多少米披索才够？
2。花钱很容易，你要本老中帮你花多少钱都能花光。你要有这个忍耐力把自己的欲望压制到基本生存，不需要多少米披索也能活下去。安全感的来源在于你的物质欲望，不在于你有多少米披索或者黄金，能够很快满足欲望的就很快就感到安全。
3。土地多了是累赘，你要现囤了10几20亩地，流动性低脱手都没法脱，每年county让你清除杂草防山火，交地税你就够烦了。房子也一样，本老中认识个信奉地产的台湾女老中在弯曲买了7、8栋房子收租，管理租客搬进搬出、维修水管家居、处理税务就够她烦了，现在猛说后悔不如炒股票，前一段时间还跟租客打官司因为半年以上收不到租金。如果你非要个数字，自住的房子不论价值可以随时完全付清，最好后院有个半亩左右可供一家人粮食所需，靠近不污染的河涧水源，基本生存不必担忧了。至于额外的黄金白银石油类，都不是自己能完全控制，因为上医院教育小孩甚至出门买菜吃饭旅游都要整个社会能够良好运作，社会运作垮了你多少钱都没用。2007-12-6 12:33
from rags to riches林行止是香港信报的创办者，信报的地位相当于亚洲的华尔街日报，也是香港最值得看的财经报纸，就是不上网要订阅邮寄。本老中询问过每年要数百米披索订阅而作罢。本老中接触的富人里面，祖上毫无来历一代以内底层奋斗上来的一个都没有。但是发财了都喜欢编造一下from rags to riches的神话，这是和谐社会麻痹大众的必要宣传。林行止提到的:達威書中對亞洲「教父」的剖析，新發現的事實不多，卻有不少新看法，值得讀者注意。其中比較突出亦令筆者有點意外的是，他指出「教父」們最熱衷標榜的「出身草根童年過非人窮困日子」，說法太誇張、失實；他就此訪問香港大學前校長、現任新加坡國立大學教授、東亞研究所所長王賡武，王氏說「我未曾見過一名苦力出身的商賈」，巨富當然更不必說了。王教授為研究華僑社會權威＊，這句話揭穿了眾多豪富為彰顯自我奮鬥成功編造「感人故事」故意貶低出身不盡不實的說法。 史達威還曾以此事就商於「對世界局勢瞭如指掌」的東亞銀行主席李國寶，李爵士衝口而出，說白手興家的豪富多的是，比如邵逸夫、李兆基和霍英東，便是從無到有的典型巨賈。史達威不以為然，他指出邵爵士為上海紡織富商之後、李兆基的先輩是順德成功的銀莊主人、霍英東確是無產階級出身，但他獲英國政府獎學金入名校（皇仁書院，因二戰而輟學）就讀─在殖民時代，入讀名校學得胡人語，等於跳出草根階層、邁出事（職）業成功第一步！顯而易見，在政權易手之際，南來的富家子弟大都身無長物，惟他們除了有富裕階級的基因、童年受良好教育外，還有耳濡目染的「身教」以至廣泛的人脈關係，這些都是草根階層人民所完全欠缺的優勢。 至於那些有賺錢稟賦之士，即使出身清寒或中產，只要娶個有錢有勢的妻子，便等於獲得向上爬的社會梯階、奠下良好「商業基礎」；這類富翁數之不盡，史達威順手舉出的便有李嘉铡2007-12-10 09:40
手上多过一套中土国房产的可以现在放掉了中土国房产这两个月见顶了，崩起来将会排山倒海很好看，要是自己住着无所谓反正也要瓦遮头，要是投资的话可以炒房炒成负资产业主。老共在通货膨胀与经济衰退里面已经有明显讯号选择后者。本老中家的旧老板蒋钧座就是死在通货膨胀上的，金圆券奠定了他偏安台湾的命运。现在中土国农民数量减少，城市化迅速大量农民涌进城市成为城市贫民也就是古代所谓的流民，通胀失控起来他们就是暴动的主力，农民倒不怕通胀反正自己种自己吃。上海本来是铁杆国字号，金圆券一来马上挺共，所以这在历史上都是有借鉴的。老共在两难之中选择了让房产、股市泡沫完蛋来保存江山。这个也意味着老共大量抛售米披索的行动就快来到。国内收缩银根没用，你要盯死米披索咱们印多少你还得印多少。但是大幅升值人民披索又因为产业问题无法做到，所以老共主要能做的无非是把米披索存款大量换成其他币值、实物。
2007-12-10 09:42
上海北京的房价都是最稳当的，其他的反而不行北京上海再跌有限，原因是中土国的资源就是极大往这两个城市倾斜，全国的老中都以成为这两个城市居民为荣，不是他们傻，而是这两个城市的待遇与所有其他的有天渊之别，就算洪水滔天，牺牲全国都要保这两座。其他的二线三线倒是泡沫最大，倒起来没底。中土国全国一盘棋的格局不改变，北京上海都是全国唯二的乐土。2007-12-10 09:45
现在还没回到14000高位，怎么能说一派大好？这种上一点跌一大跤的拉高出货伎俩在熊市里层出不穷，如果以欧金单位来看米股，已经进入熊市好长时间了。商品的周期很长，跟股市传统的4年周期不同，因为商品的需求与供应反应都很慢不容易增加减少，所以周期中位数是16年。以01年为启动年，就算保守点周期作为10年，还有3年好玩，更何况这个周期还有米披索大泻的因素在内推波助澜。
2007-12-10 10:05
本老中认为中土国要硬着陆的即使中土国不着陆，本老中素来分享中土国加快发展的方式就是投资中土国不得不进口的原材料、粮食、能源，因为本老中对于中土国企业金融制度都没有中期信心，只有短期炒卖搏傻的兴趣，而本老中投资的方式更加容易套现逃离中土国。本老中所有直属家人、财产全部已经搬离中土国统治范围，最多就在香港市场上玩玩国企，所以在根本面出现分歧就很难谈下去。本老中始终认为中土国是个高风险国家，所以要寻求最流动，最低风险的分享成长方式，买不动产非本老中那杯茶。本老中认为中土国正在重复东瀛的命运，不过条件比当年东瀛差远了。万一中土国挺得过去，本老中一定日后用钱投票爱国，万一顶不过去本老中就不必麻烦撤退路线了。长期来说每个国家都会更好，不过对本老中有效的长期就在这20年，你这20年不能给本老中带来可靠可观的盈利就等于没用。谁的看法正确最好让时间作证明，本老中认为世界之大，除了中土国还有很多好的选择，不必绑死一棵树上。
老中一号
中土国的问题，看一篇吴思的血酬定律就够了，那用得了一个网站. 吴思的东西一点都不文学。还有一本潜规则. 读完了就知道在中土国怎么混才混得好。本老中给父母介绍这么书，他们看完了就说在党内混了一辈子，这本书是最好的总结。中土国的问题没有方子，开方子的都是不是骗子就是白痴，什么民主科学全部废话。生癌的人你开什么方子？看了这本书你就知道怎么在生癌的人身上刮多几个钱再跑，这不具有很好的现实意义了吗？命理术数，本老中都有点涉猎，其中唯一有点科学道理的就是面相，其他玄学都是胡说八道。还有一种有点道理的是风水学的基本原则，可以用现代科学解释部分。为什么面相有点道理呢？因为一个人的命运，很大部分取决于周围人怎么对他看待他，而且相由心生，一个人的性格很大部分在面相上能看出来，手掌、出生时辰全部无关。一个人最重要是长得顺眼，让人看上去生出信任爱护之心、舒服、漂亮，这样的人一生人都会有贵人扶持，也能逢凶化吉。长得好不如长得顺眼，如果一个人长得丑，奸猾，那么干什么事都要事倍功半。面相也会因为年月、经历改变，并不是一成不变的。面相其实就是一种多年流传下来群众认为“顺眼”的标准。所以长得顺眼，就是具备了面相里面好的要素，让群众感到满意，运程才会好起来。整容能否改变呢？整容高手的确能改变运程，以前相书上也有破解之道，当时科学不发达，手段也很笨拙，穿衣梳头就算了。但是整容的医生与病人本身未必懂得怎么整才是最有利于运程，所以他们眼里“美丽的外表”很可能不配合原来的面相，人漂亮了，但是造成破相，弄巧反拙。
本老中可以推荐用yahoo etf部分的screener,可以做到sector specific，但是不够齐全，因为etf每个星期都有好几个新的上市，所以最好时常对自己有兴趣的行业做搜索。yahoo上面挑了几个心里有概念的etf，然后去etfconnect看资料，因为yahoo的资料不全而且不准确，但是etfconnect没有行业的选择。看完了当然还得上etf本来的网站上看prospectus。本老中挑的基本上是没有ADR OTC的外国股票，以外汇债券为主，股票的话本老中还是宁愿亲自做功课，自己买，买得少而精。外汇债券里面，本老中推荐的有BWX, GIM，前者是其他国家的政府债券指数基金，后者也有大部分其他国家政府债券，以及一些高级数外汇债券，两个都是所有选择里最保守的外汇债券，没有杠杆，米披索越跌越受惠。本老中基本上拿着这两个ETF作为Money Market fund, 在等买股票的时候就把闲钱搁那里，比放在米披索CD的利息高，而且还不怕贬值。牛市末段的疯狂这两个月大家都见识了，其实这还没有到末末段。现在神华股票的总值比BHP,RIO加起来都高，但是神话的资产素质比后面两个差远了，泡沫跟东瀛爆煲前一样。但是本老中有个指标，东瀛爆煲的时候全世界10大市值他占了8个，中土国现在只占了4个，等到中土国企业占了8个或以上就是本老中完全撤出不再回头的时刻。然而升市莫猜顶，本老中对中土国老中的疯狂从来不敢低估。最好的策略就是现在把成本全部捞出来，剩下来的零成本继续持有，跟所有的疯狂老中斗耐心，斗疯癫，看看谁能成功捕捉最后那个浪尖。这不是单单钞票的问题，而是捕捉浪尖的那个心跳。
各种货币都有ETF，欧金FXE，澳金FXA，诸如此类，上yahoo finance网去查。这种可以用来炒外汇。比较懒的就买外币债券基金，American Century的BEGBX最好，因为Cheney都买了一千到两千万米披索，跟着影子总统走没错。本老中不喜欢买基金，特别喜欢ETF，本老中下重注的是GIM，基本上是本老中的money market fund，想不出买什么的先搁在那里收利息。还有一个推荐的是BWX，外国政府债券基金，横跨17个主要外币国家。顺便说一声，很多money market fund里面都有房贷成分，哪天出事不知道，所以本老中不用，GIM就是本老中的现金。直接买粮食期货指数，DBA.粮食公司很少，只有几个都已经炒上天。不过近来BG因为issue convertible大幅回落了10%，可以考虑在100左右吸纳。
中土国缺水必定造成大幅从国外进口粮食. 因为进口粮食就是进口水的一种途径，中土国本身的水不足以支持那么多农产品，到时候耕地倒不是最大的问题。本老中三年前就看到过几篇老白的研究报告，说中土国的水危机会迫使中土国购买粮食，而中土国的人口买什么都会推动环球价格。所以买粮食是个中期的投资，你进货了要等两三年才会高潮。联储就管短期ARM利息，这两次减息后长期30年房贷利息根本没跌。再减息的话反而要升，现在谁那么傻瓜肯借钱出去30年后收回米披索？就算大家都用ARM，米国能够联储零利息30年？用低利息ARM死撑买房就等于吸毒，利息一涨就歇菜，所以短期利息一定要越来越低才能撑下去，这种情况能够维持30年？10年都了不起了。东瀛奉行零利息多年了，结果房事怎么样？要跌一样跌。你去查一查历史，看看米国的历史上有多少年30年房贷是10%以上的，或者靠近10%。2003-2005的30年房贷利息是联储成立以来最低的。下面是1971年到现在的利率
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
如果联储不顾通胀，就把利息降到地板上的话，那么米披索也会变成跟废纸差不多，米披索的房价毫无意义，得看欧金角度的米国放价值多少。如果你在欧洲挣欧金，在米国借米披索买房，那会赚。要是在米国挣米披索，还米披索，根本没有油水可捞。因为这些新“发明”的贷款本身就不应该存在，不过是死撑的工具。现在在弯曲，自杀式Neg-am贷款已经没有了，而且在可见的将来也不会再出现，因为没有投资人。其实人类上演的一幕幕，全在历史中能找到相应的例子，所以文明的智慧在于记忆，因为人的智商并没有进展太多，大家今天能想到的，几十年，几百年，几千年以前都有过人想到而且试验过了。经济衰退不会一两年，这是一个10年的周期，逃不过的.但是大部分老中，只要不是在这拨买房潮里面昏头买泡泡房的，而且解决了身份问题，这就是老中这个祖群发迹的时代。在泡泡年代，不要什么勤劳头脑大家都能发财，但是财的内涵也给冲淡了，财的意思是比别人多才是财，大家都是百万毫宅那个宅就等于个屁。在经济困难的年代，老中这种谨慎勤恳的民族最赚，而且老中都是cash rich。大家好好保存实力，把钱房子实物资产里面，等到外面腥风血雨的时候就出动做秃鹰。知道李嘉诚怎么真正发迹的嘛？就是64年香港暴动，房子掉到几分之一，地皮更加不值钱，他大手搜购，熬过了以后奠定了地产大亨的位置。香港小甜甜龚如心跟她老公，就是在暴动的同期疯狂搜购当时差不多白送的新界土地，不然日后也不能从一个普通的商人变成几百亿身价的巨富。咱们这些读书出身小钱有点的，不是每个人都能中上市彩。没有这种大时代的变迁，很难完成从小富到巨富的转变。
2007-11-09
日元已经上升到111，8月份日元两天内完成122到113的升势，结果什么都跌个四脚朝天，全球股票暴跌，各种工业金属粮食商品石油主要carry trade货币澳币纽币统统跌，澳币从靠近0。9跌到0。77，连欧金都被殃及，心脏不好的8月就暴毙了。日元是提供全世界流动资金的最大来源，日元一上，很多借了日元的hedge funds就要完蛋了，这是万朝归宗，迟早要发生的。但是这次日元上升到111很有意思，黄金不跌，石油不跌，欧金澳币不跌（不跌就是跌幅小到可以忽略），但是全球股票都跌。这就是说一个新趋势已经形成，资本市场已经认为，滞胀，不是通胀啊，滞胀不可避免，即使日元讨债的号角已经吹响，抗通胀的类别与公认的安全港类别已经不会被抛售，当日元unwinding结束的时候，升势将会是非常凌厉，石油在未来两个月内应该会站稳在一百以上。同时，资金认为全球经济会衰退，所以石油能源商品类以外的股票全部都大跌，而且逃离发展中国家的脚步会加快，在经济衰退的时候，大家都寻求安全避风港，发展中国家有各种问题不能成为安全港，所以欧金年底可能破1。5。H股在这种大势上来说，资金市的基本面已经无肉可吃（股票的基本面一早就一塌糊涂，本老中不过在等资金市尾声），很明显资金逃离米国并不跑到香港，而是继续购买实质资产，货币上最受益的是日元、欧金。现在日元不过是从115-117升到111，要是重复8月的升幅，米股、港股、欧股的跌幅会更加可怕，而且这种升幅完全不可测，看的是momentum，可以完全因为市场心理的逆转排山倒海。还在炒股的眼睛一定要盯着日元，日元过了110赶紧逃命。因为日元利息低，持有成本高，建议不要大量购买, 日元要真的冲破100，金融秩序都要打乱了，到时最好的是持有黄金，沽空米股港股指数。东瀛的股票也会跌，但是因为有日元上升的因素在内，不知道是货币上升多还是股票下跌多，以米披索结账的日经指数最好不要赌。要是经济衰退,恐怕能源商品类也会跌. 黄金不是能源，是最后的避风港，是货币。石油要很晚才跌. 粮食不会跌，因为经济衰退不衰退都要吃饭，而且因为大量的农田用来种植能源，这个供需要两三年才能完全反映。不要低估老日，高估老共，原料飞涨最受打击的就是那些消耗效率低下的国家，最受益的就是消耗效率高的国家，这就不用本老中挑明哪个国家最倒霉了吧。
殖民主义定义是外来者到当地，获取比当地人比例更大资源，奴役原居民.米国老中最好也能弄张原料国家护照就高枕无忧了.米国未来10几年很不好混，如果各位都混到高级狗腿，或者有希望混到高级狗腿，那又不必担心，反而是狗腿变奴隶主的大好机会。这社会要时不时洗牌，不洗牌的话泥腿子怎么进城做新贵族？不好混的，尤其是还没混到绿卡的，赶紧去原料国家接着混，原料供应与需求都是个漫长的调整过程，所以原料周期都是15年左右的，现在还剩下10年，人的生活期望一调高降下来就很难，而且跟能源有关的，那是钢需，铀价会飞升。要混护照得早，前10年是世界移民高潮，世界经济一不行所有国家就会收紧移民提高门槛。但是米国不好混，比米国更加不好混的就是中土国，因为中土国崩溃论之所以还没有兑现的根本原因在于中土国背靠米国，米国靠印刷钞票延长了繁荣，推迟了衰退，但是来的总要来，加倍奉还罢了。中土国就是米国胖子摔跤倒下下面那块沙包，日后最倒霉的就是中土国的奴隶跟低级狗腿所谓白领，他们将承受大部分米国衰退的后果。中土国扛的是白条，产业技术升级现阶段无望，大量本来供应自足的资源现在依赖进口，本来好好的全国自行车偏偏在石油峰值时代变成面子汽车，本来收入较为平均变成贫富悬殊，世界经济萧条的规律就是所有发达国家关大门，发展中国家社会动荡与自然灾难的条件已经成熟，就是看4年内怎么爆发，形式如何，深度广度如何，不然本老中父母在中土国好好享福日子不过出来坐移民监干吗？幸运的就是中土国军事能力有限，国内也摆不平，危机爆发的时候没有挑战米国霸权的能力，不然的话就可能打仗了，咱们又要面对老共清零的威胁。中土国高级老中有条件、嗅觉灵敏的都已经部署撤退，就剩下那些盲目自大的还以为能够趁米国弱取而代之做白日梦。不管中土国荡不荡，奥运前开始沽空香港上市的中概，特别是出口贸易有关的，又能发笔小财了，资本主义就是好，管你繁荣还是动荡打仗，都不耽误发财。
1。米披索不是一个稳定的store of value。现在高峰还没到来，FDIC, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae全部出现周转问题，要印多少米披索才够？2。花钱很容易，你要本老中帮你花多少钱都能花光。你要有这个忍耐力把自己的欲望压制到基本生存，不需要多少米披索也能活下去。安全感的来源在于你的物质欲望，不在于你有多少米披索或者黄金，能够很快满足欲望的就很快就感到安全。3。土地多了是累赘，你要现囤了10几20亩地，流动性低脱手都没法脱，每年county让你清除杂草防山火，交地税你就够烦了。房子也一样，本老中认识个信奉地产的台湾女老中在弯曲买了7、8栋房子收租，管理租客搬进搬出、维修水管家居、处理税务就够她烦了，现在猛说后悔不如炒股票，前一段时间还跟租客打官司因为半年以上收不到租金。如果你非要个数字，自住的房子不论价值可以随时完全付清，最好后院有个半亩左右可供一家人粮食所需，靠近不污染的河涧水源，基本生存不必担忧了。至于额外的黄金白银石油类，都不是自己能完全控制，因为上医院教育小孩甚至出门买菜吃饭旅游都要整个社会能够良好运作，社会运作垮了你多少钱都没用。
人有很多等，同种族内劣等的人无序繁殖，就会造成那个种族的精英受到连累，虽然暂时奴役那些低等奴隶可以榨取剩余价值，但是长期下去不能跟整个种族都能提升的智商文明竞争相比。中土国的现实就是，劣等老中奴隶太多了，所以老共对于现代文明贡献最大的就是计划生育，就是不该一刀切，有钱有教育的，放开生。没钱没教育的底层老中，用各种手段让他们不要生，方法可以是农民独生子女政府提供到高中为止的免费教育，如果生多过一个从小学起政府就不提供任何免费教育资源，当然这些免费资源的素质看菜吃饭，素质不能跟富裕地区的相比。中土国的农民，经过那么多千年的流动，又能造反又能科举又能经商还能靠婚嫁改变命运，要是混来混去还是呆在底层，老实说都是物竞天择被反复淘汰的基因，老天爷一早不眷顾了。拖着他们上路，根本就是给老中文明添堵。中土国这块地方，13亿人严重超载（据说实际数字是16亿），所以搞得劣币驱逐良币，把有能力有危机意识的逼走，剩下来还想做点什么的怎么都搞不过靠10亿奴隶思维奴隶行为的底层老中，因为社会本质还是他们决定的。提升这些人的思想意识，根本是不可能的事，因为学校只会主导一部分，家庭教育是主要，天天跟着愚昧的父母潜移默化，不愚昧才怪。千万不要低估愚昧大众，不要说中土国，米国这里的南方（不说南方，加州中部就有）愚昧大众也很要命，唯一没让他们闹出大事来就是依赖天然资源雄厚，而且人数不是绝对性压倒。那些所谓农村里面走出来的，你去问问，他们祖上有没有出过什么人物？答案几乎都是正面的，不过是时运低落一时沦落在农村，无论如何，总有一天他们都会以不同的形式走出来，本老中接触过的所谓农村同学一寻根问底祖上都是有过积累，不是真正的文盲农民。这里老帮菜接触过的同学朋友都是中土国的中层以上，真正的底层愚昧农民怕是跟大家完全没有一点共同语言。比较中土社会各阶层与先进国家，相对最低劣的就是知识阶层和精英群体。清末和民国时，同样是知识阶层、高等华人相对最低劣. 怎么都比现在的好多了。清末民国，整个民族都有灭顶的危险，混成那样是整体民族水平下降，没办法。那是因为现存的知识阶层所谓精英群体. 是老毛立国后靠贫农身份才能上大学完成学业的，等到这个矫枉过正的一代过去了，本来哪儿来的还该哪儿去。这些人就算集聚了钱，也没有这个本事传下去。现在卡位的都是那一代的人？你跟年轻一点的打交道素质就高很多. 50岁这一代的卡位老不死素质最差中土国都已经有了公论。为什么文革在中土国会闹了10年，而在巴黎公社只闹了几个月就破产？原因在于基层官僚的支持，不在于群众，群众没资源，不给饭吃不发工资闹什么闹。主要原因在于整个中土国的社会架构给打破了，这是老毛一生的梦想，打破旧有秩序。但是他不理解经过千年以上沉淀的秩序有它本来的自然规律与深层因素。现在的金融贸易大跃进不过是文革的一个变异，原因就是搞这一套的都是同一个年代翻身作主的贫民。
黑色星期五那么惨烈，不过是这几年的事,本老中第一次体验是97年，开门前半个小时去排队，稀稀落落没几个人，都是些老黑老墨老中，老白都没几个，开门了也没有一哄而上，大家都会数数，降价的商品还不及得等开门的多。本老中当时还赞叹说，资本主义商品极大丰富，大减价了人民都没兴趣来。感恩节闹到现在这个样子只有一个原因，底层米国奴隶越来越多，每分每毛都要算过.
中东老伊配合米国出口术降低油价，方便米国减息，不然的话太不好交代，油价飙升的情况下降息无法说得过去。所以减息一完成，油价还是会冲破百元大关。OPEC峰值已过，增产量增个屁，要有这个能力一早增了.
汇丰银行的作风全球属于最保守的，一下子都要撇帐350亿，把off-balance-sheet的亏损揽上身。现在的银行、金融机构全是潘多拉的宝盒，off-balance-sheet的亏损大得惊人可以随时吃掉整家银行。不然的话Citi这种级别的银行，在米联储短期利率5%都不到的情况下需要出11%借钱？这个spread大得可怕，放到房贷上要全面反映的话，现在买房30年的贷款全部要超过15%，资金面有多糟糕就知道了。12月5日AIG要披露亏损，现在为止保险公司还没有披露，他就要打开另一个潘多拉垃圾箱了，一下子又多一个行业搭进去。现在的市场比本老中当初预计还差，不是什么买股票挣钱的时候，而是怎么保证你的财富不给挥发的时代。账面上，你的基金未来几年不会大跌，因为联储还有大量钞票要印来救火，购买力上，买基金基本上都是亏，只能有选择地作战，挑选衰退萧条期表现不受影响的传统行业，或者赌一把新兴能源，新兴产业。所谓contingent liabilities里面的5%不到，整个问题资产是8000亿。你信不信350亿撇完了里面其他7650亿的CDO, CDS, SIV全部都是完美无瑕一点撇帐都不需要的呢？这还是全球最保守的大银行，米国银行素以进取作风闻名，那个潘多拉的垃圾箱有多大可想而知。如果买bond保证你的钱慢速给挥发掉如果你不在意购买力，只在意账面数字，那么买米国国债最安全。如果你在意米披索的购买力，米国国债保证你的资金给稳定地安全地挥发掉，所以你应该买西欧国家债券。如果你在意货币的购买力，西欧的国家债券也能保证你的资金给稳定地安全地挥发掉（不过他们的挥发期起步稍晚），所以你必须冒险买能源贵金属等等抗通胀的工具，告别稳定安全的利息收入。高通胀期，尤其是高滞胀期，买债券是大忌。现在的年代就是，你不怎么需要的会跌（例如房子），你物理存在非要不可的就要涨（例如粮食水源）。财富需要一个store of value才能反映。在货币时代米披索就是这个store of value，不然咱们怎么能够比较孔雀毛？现在米披索的保值功能越来越少了，大家信心开始崩溃，就要开始找其他的实物来代替，所以现代的能源粮食就是猿人时代的石器工具，是财富的保值手段。你要把握了基本面，一个星期的波动有什么可怕的。基本面就是，最大的reset潮还在前面，从2008上半年到2010才完成，而且这是倒骨牌，Goldman2006年有过一张图表，当时的房价来说，米国所有有按揭的房屋里面10%左右已经是负资产，最多按揭百分比的成数是30-40%占了所有房屋的一半，房价再掉个20-30%就全部搭进去了。按揭垃圾的影响无远弗届，连佛罗里达政府都着道了要停止属下机构回赎基金不然佛罗里达政府雇员全体倒霉。这种情况联储不减息不印钞票就好像让狗不吃屎一样难。90年初的S&L规模比这小多了，政府怎么解决？印钞票。短期来说市场都能被操纵，长期来说只有服从经济规律一条路走。未来考虑的是depression要维持多长，而不是会不会recession。按照你和Micro的看法，好像现在和未来几年买粮食，能源，金属类的基金会赚?不是赚，而是保持购买力。这个阶段的游戏叫做保持购买力.现在最麻烦的是衍生工具，占所有金融机构的投资工具一半以上，但是衍生工具不过怎么衍生法，最终的价值只有一个浮标可靠-房价。衍生工具的价值都是一环扣一环，一个死了拉倒一大片，所以在衍生工具歇菜的过程中，所有东西的价值全部都会受到影响。如果政府啥都不干，那么所有东西的价值全部都会跌个半死。但是政府啥都不干那么这个政府就别干下去了，所以政府必定会干的就是大印钞票维持基本的社会运作。然而印了的钞票不会再回到这些衍生工具或者房子股票上，而是寻求下一个自保工具，因为钞票太多信不过。这是商品贵金属会上的根本原因。现在这个阶段就是政府印钞票与衍生工具大歇菜交替的时候，联储最终的方向就是把利息降到东瀛那样，他愿意不愿意都没办法，因为历史的剧本已经写好了。
干吗老拿米国案例套中土国？要是中土国有同样的社会资源人文环境大家还在米国做海外老中干吗？法律就是当地资源能够负荷的道德体现和约束，老说这种不着边际的废话干吗？中土国毕竟是个独立的国家，他要有什么样的法律是他的考虑他的事，轮到你管？法律在有效、公平以外，还要有执行的基础，不然的话法律就变成道德竞赛白纸一张，说了白说。闲房应该卖，而且钱要拿出来，不然困在里面也无出路. 中土国投资渠道非常有限，跟银行存款比，泡沫极大的股市比，房子已经是最好的保值渠道。米国消费如果突然消失的话（明年有这个具体危险），人民披索要面对的是贬值，对米披索贬值，而不是升值。因为到了那个时候，米国根本没有必要强迫人民披索升值，而中土国被唱衰到现在还没衰的原因在于米国的借贷消费还在那里挺着中土国。全球主要货币的年供应量增长这三年都是双位数. 米国M3从06年三月开始不披露了，所以大家就靠猜。全球性通货膨胀已经发生，不过是下游国家（中土国）特别明显，上游国家欧洲米国不明显而已。等到下游国家扛不动被迫全面输出通胀而不是靠自己奴隶吸收，上游国家的好日子就到头了。
没必要啃别人的评论，直接啃他老师的所有著作. 特别是那本security analysis, 翻来覆去地啃到自己尽量明白为止，就知道其中的不朽。那些系数未必要完全参照，但是基本道理千古不变。股神对他老师的著作身体力行，咱们悟性不高，能啃到一半下辈子想穷也很难。
外汇本老中只对趋势有信心，具体到每个星期是赌博. 股神2005年都不看好米披索而开始有生以来第一次玩外汇，结果在米披索中长线趋势大弱的情况下都认栽出局，因为低估了布什的一年企业海外资产回笼免税的威力，05年成为近年米披索下降通道中唯一的反弹年。结果股神总结他不能玩外汇，只能看准外汇趋势来中长期投资股票。股神都吃不准的东西本老中更加不敢碰。不过本老中有不少袋鼠币，贪其高息原料支持，买了好几年经历过不少日元unwinding惊涛骇浪，5年平均下来表现不错，要是每年结账就头大了，所以本老中没有这个本事玩外汇短期。日元因为老日干涉因素，加上息小，只能小赌。
让本老中心情不好只有一个方法，让本老中亏钱，其它一概没用。
生活简单物质需要低是价值投资者的必需条件.不那么做就无法成为一个成功的价值投资者。价值投资就是能看清事物本质，完全无视包装，生活里面能满足基本需要的要价很便宜，全是那些零售商的品牌包装才让虚荣的冤大头给溢价。虚荣与价值投资完全背道而驰. 更重要的就是，价值投资着一定要有守的能力，因为发掘价值需要勇气，需要给市场足够的时间来发现你一早发现的东西，因为最终市场都会走向事实认知。
这不仅不能缓死，而且后遗症很大. 这样玩了，日后谁肯做ARM的投资者？你愿意吗？这只能让现在的ARM持有者受益（而且符合条件比较高），日后的ARM只有更紧，谁脑子进水借钱出去让政府freeze rate? 这也就是能抵挡洪水几个月让华尔街出货，对于实际情况毫无影响。现在这种情况华尔街的分析员一个说卖的都没有，只有hold，利益所在嘛。这次爆煲越来越精彩，连华尔街后院Connecticut州政府都给绕进去了，paypal，各大证券商money market fund全有着道的。这还不算，下一波必然爆发的就是信用卡贷款垃圾，很多信用卡都打包上市了。现在是最好的挑选retailer沽空的时机，一月份报告出来就能获利，不少retailers将会在这次危机中破产，因为这5年扩张过速，借贷过多。
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手上多过一套中土国房产的可以现在放掉了. 中土国房产这两个月见顶了，崩起来将会排山倒海很好看，要是自己住着无所谓反正也要瓦遮头，要是投资的话可以炒房炒成负资产业主。老共在通货膨胀与经济衰退里面已经有明显讯号选择后者。本老中家的旧老板蒋钧座就是死在通货膨胀上的，金圆券奠定了他偏安台湾的命运。现在中土国农民数量减少，城市化迅速大量农民涌进城市成为城市贫民也就是古代所谓的流民，通胀失控起来他们就是暴动的主力，农民倒不怕通胀反正自己种自己吃。上海本来是铁杆国字号，金圆券一来马上挺共，所以这在历史上都是有借鉴的。老共在两难之中选择了让房产、股市泡沫完蛋来保存江山。这个也意味着老共大量抛售米披索的行动就快来到。国内收缩银根没用，你要盯死米披索咱们印多少你还得印多少。但是大幅升值人民披索又因为产业问题无法做到，所以老共主要能做的无非是把米披索存款大量换成其他币值、实物。A股奥运前还有可能产生一波行情创新高，奥运后股市将崩溃.可惜没有沽空机制，不然的话本老中希望他创新高，沽起来才过瘾。希望做中土国秃鹰的还能去香港股市上玩。每一次这种大行情转变就是财富大转移的机会，一定要牢牢把握。今年无论买黄金、粮食还是石油，回报都不会及得做秃鹰。香港的阿里巴巴就是一个上佳的目标，完全可以重演toys.com的壮观情形。当年toys.com让很多纸上富贵消失，但是本老中恰好认识一个沽空的沽成奴隶主。金砖四国本老中就沽中印，这两个都是资源穷国. 米国歇菜了，中土国印度只会死得更难看。本老中一定不敢沽老毛子。如果你要稳当，不要想着明年就卖，黄金高潮远远没到.但是黄金上落真的很大，所以本老中不怎么建议别人买很多，除非你心理素质特强，买了就别看，降息周期不过去以前都是黄金大牛市，但是波动大。你要08年稳妥的，买粮食。中土国今年开始限制粮食出口了，以前是有减税补贴的。本老中读过不少报告，中土国开始缺粮了。未来10年的投资主题就是，卖粮给中土国吃，卖水给中土国喝。老毛在深挖洞广积粮方面非常有远见，一个人口大国当粮食供应出现问题的时候，就是把柄抓在别人手上。现在中土国主流媒体都在那里死鸡撑饭盖说粮食供应足够，根本不知道国外很多追踪的报告比中土国本身的更加专业，大旱大涝、工业商业用地转换、抢占农田，改种其他非粮食农作物，全部都是朝农产品炒家最心花怒放的方向发展。米国只有3%的农民人口，要不是认识到保证粮食供应，怎么会让大家补贴农民那么多年？这就是有前瞻的政策。老毛有很多政策对于一般不能出国的老中来说，都是有长远利益的。一个大国，连自己粮食都让人摸清了底崛什么起，撅屁股就差不多
米国有好几个行业的大公司会破产，要沽的赶早. 一路沽到他们见阎王。跟房屋有关的大件消费 - 家具类(IKEA唯一例外，不过他也不上市）、游艇类、房屋设备类、无聊家庭用品类（比如画框啊、垃圾摆设啊）。这些类别除了技术内容很低外还有一个汇率大风险，都是靠中土国抗着才能提供廉价，人民披索升个10%，这里经济萧条又不能提价，立马完蛋。电子品销售 - 电子品销售是inventory风险最大的，一卖不出12个月后存货全是废品价金融类别 - 低处未算低，总有好几家会倒闭，就看有没有这个眼光挑中了
中土国最高层的那些奴隶主阶级，混进去最容易的方式不是去中土国，而是培养小老中在米国的贵族寄宿学校、常青藤大学与他们结交通婚。你去中土国怎么才能结识到这些华能中金大老板式的奴隶主？竞争太激烈了，不如等他们的子弟来米国自投罗网。这些头等中土国的奴隶主阶级联盟已经牢如金汤，除了这种办法，根本无法混得进，家族之间形成垄断，下面的不要妄想晋升。如果是做个普通的老中奴隶主，那个财富回报不过是米国的高等狗腿相同，这里都坐稳了的高等狗腿，去哪里赶什么热闹？本老中对于能够号令成千上万个老中奴隶这些虚荣不感兴趣，只对财富回报，财富的控制能力感兴趣，老中奴隶本身价值不高，在他们身上榨取剩余价值效率也低。况且头等奴隶主以下的小奴隶主不好当，一不小心就会被形势、制度清零（所以移民最多的就是这群），而且他们也不过是被米国的奴隶主甚至高级狗腿所奴役。米国最大的好处是阶层之间互相清零过程温和多了，可以靠多代积累上位，总之方向对了，抓住脉搏，成为头等奴隶主不过是个时间的问题。在中土国那个时间紧迫性高，而且赚到了不能积累首先要转移。奴隶主的空位主要靠科技发展来创造，传统垄断性行业根本不可能产生新空位。中土国的科技创新嘿嘿嘿，职位空缺很难创造，大家觉得奴隶主晋升机会高不过是过去20年从社会主义到资本主义巨变中突然产生的一次性机会，今后不会重复（除非又出现49年式的清零，那又是一个冒险家的乐园机会了）。哪里的头等奴隶主在传统行业，都是垄断性阶级联盟，行业不改变巨头来来去去都是那几个家族。但是只要有科技创新新行业的产生，这些联盟就会被破坏。所以对有野心的社会阶层来说，一定要找创新不断的社会猫着，才能有新机会涌现。硅谷所产生的新富，绝大部分都是狗腿出身，不是奴隶主的子弟。你要求奴隶直接上位不现实，因为他们没有这个见识。但是一个社会只要给狗腿不停创造新机会，已经相对公平。
老共的清零在于把自己种族内传统的商业智慧清光了. 所以那么多年来重新交学费，而且还有一段时间要好好交。其实他要清零本老中也明白，每个新朝开始都要奖励自己功臣，但是老毛的荒谬在于他认为自己是上帝，而且他在出身上有强烈的自卑情结，偏要颠覆传统的老中文化社会秩序，什么越低贱的越高贵，把大家族里面存续多代的智慧全部清光了，好吧，现在就清剩下你们这些奴隶文化，自个儿慢慢玩儿好了。老邓就比老毛高明多了，他懂得历史的规则，有些多年积累的秩序有其存在的必要，人力无法推翻，因为老邓没有性格上的自卑。要是老毛跑到印度去，印度就惨了，本身就没有能力让奴隶吃饱饭，还要去鼓动他们平权，到时印度根本无法住人。每个种族能生存到现在都有自己的生存智慧，现在的老中文化看起来哪有半分几千年文明的睿智
Q by tom_cat对于大部分普通投资者，买贵金属，能源和commodity是一件很扯淡的事，原因很简单，就是这些个玩意儿都是风险极高的东西，而且它们的价格浮动往往是speculation－driven，波动很大。普通投资者应该学的第一课是risk-averse，而不是performance-chasing。更重要的是不要总想着beat market，你的第一件事应该是beat inflation，用CD rate和bond来benchmark自己。另外一个经常在网上看到的扯淡就是对美元贬值的大惊小怪。对于一般美国人来说，除了出国旅游的时候以外，基本上美元贬值对日常生活影响不大。一个简单的例子就是人民币对美元猛涨，国内老百姓的钱反而更不值钱。更有意义的数据是cpi。第三个扯淡就是对social security危机的大惊小怪，美国social security的不平衡是以后75年欠4trillion，30年内基本上是平衡的，就是说30年内退休失业的人都会老有所养。打个比方就是你手机att一个月交60元，你在以后20年就欠了att一万四，但你以后20年的预算只有一万。当然social security有自己的问题，而且需要解决。但根本没那么可怕。
本老中同意1，不同意2、3 by 老中一号2的原因在于米披索的贬值效应还没有全面反映出来，生活用品的价格变动比货币价值慢得多，因为生活用品的价格要照顾到顾客跑路，需求缩减。原油的价格在gasoline的零售价上面有滞后、政治上的因素干扰，但是不代表这个效应会消失，最后还是会全面反映。所以米国的通胀，真正的危机还没到，要多等一年半载才会在市面反映出来。中土国的货币升值对于米国已经非常温和，才上了个10%左右，如果人民披索好像欧金那么上，米国人民的生活价格就会大大不同。中土国的问题是他们处于价值链的底层，帮米国人民分忧抗着通胀。中土国大量进口的原材料国家，相对米国货币升值了50%以上，铁矿石加价起来一年就100%以上，但是这些价格在人民披索上反映了没有？所以中土国老中觉得通胀不可忍受，因为他们被迫分担本来应该由米国人民承担的通胀。而且这不过是个开始。SS所谓的老有所养是账面上的，购买力上不可能达到。不过任何人退休都不应该对政府承诺有任何期望，给了政府的钱，基本上都是肉包子打狗。因为政府的支出永远增长得比收入快,如果政府出现赤字，他会先欠政府员工的工资还是欠你的养老金？2001年的时候米国赤字还没到今天的地步，克林顿好不容易在账面上算是扯平了三年，而且2001年的时候米披索挟科技产业发飚的余威对欧金是0.85，对枫叶币是1.6！每年的养老金，救济金indexing都是参照DOL发表的cpi，你相信过去5年的cpi平均才只有2%？炒石油的人都知道，每个月第二个星期二左右油价一定会相对低沉，原因是cpi的sampling就是那个时候做。所以大家都会做，炒低了让DOL录得低数字，方便联储减息，然后才能更加往上炒。郎咸平没有高论，他也不过是个走江湖卖唱的.高人看到问题，在股票市场直接挣钱去了，怎么解决问题不是高人的问题，是政府的问题，不在其位，不谋其政。郎咸平卖的是门票费，跟大家的操作盈利方式不太一样。不要把国家跟个人混为一谈.米国是第一强国，也有很多混成流浪汉，就算护照能去任何地方他也没钱去，流浪汉更加连申请护照的钱都没有。中土国就算不堪，也有奴隶主能拿着因公护照到处去，而且吃喝玩乐都讲究，买个外国护照易如反掌。自己混得好比国家混得好重要得多，拿国家整体形象来套个人成就没意思。民国的时候能去外国的都不是穷鬼，当然不要签证，因为老中奴隶哪里出得起几年工资50大洋坐轮船？老中奴隶主无论在民国时期、老共时期，去哪里都不是问题，如果觉得有这样那样的困难那是因为在中土国没混好。就说护照的话，老日的比老米的好用，因为咱们去不了古巴，去不了朝鲜，更加不能去伊朗、伊拉克、什么什么斯坦这些国家，那是给恐怖分子送人质。老日拿着护照这些地方都能去。
2008.01.20
每一次印钞票钞票就要找出路. 印钞票除了政府monetize debt（就是无偿给债项保底外），就是靠债项的发水。你想，那么多CDO, CDS, MBS都怎么来的？米国的华尔街主要就干一回事，monetize future cashflow，把预计的、计划的、吹牛的做梦的明天的后天的钱全部在今天折现，这就是金融的本质。股价也好，债券也好，全部都是折现未来的现金流。但是未来的钱谁都还没拿到手啊，那咋办呢？借钱。钱是怎么借出来的呢？银行的fractional reserve制度，银行只有10块钱，可以借出100块，只要他在会计制度上入账就行了。当大家都习惯于未来现金流折现的时候，一些资产的价格就会越来越高，直到有一天大家都发觉再乐观的吹牛估计也无法兑现这些未来的现金流。这就是泡沫爆破的时候。但是过去20年来，每一次泡沫爆破都是靠政府印钞票解决，政府包底S&L（上一次房产爆破），政府注资金融机构解救LTCM，政府在911后把利息降到地板等等等。历史的规律就是，新印的钞票永远不会回去爆破完了的sector，每一次印钞票的结果就是造就新的资产泡沫。不仅米国如此，东瀛中土国全是如此，老日老中都不让银行破产，不良资产剥离了N次还在那里半死不活，政府无底线支持。这种态度只会让泡沫越来越大。所有泡沫里面，最后出现的泡沫就是商品泡沫，这是一个大历史的循环。为什么？因为泡沫的出现造就社会资源流向不平衡，internet容易挣钱大家都去搞网站，炒房容易挣钱大家都去炒房，那么社会上其他的部分呢？Underinvestment就出现了。所以每种资产泡沫都是对这个资产以外的类别的投资惩罚。商品相对所有其他的股票、房子、债券类别，投资周期特别长，反应特别慢，投资油钻通常有20-30年使用期，投资一个发电站的设备有50年的使用期，而且市场永远一窝蜂，上一波投多了一霉就要霉20、30年，等到发觉设备不够用了重新开始投资的时候pick-up时间就需要5年以上。所以股市从盛转衰的周期是4年，商品的盛转衰周期是15-20年。这也是为什么商品一定是所有泡沫的终结者，因为要不是其他能快速行动的类别全炒完了（所以房市泡沫一定晚过股市泡沫），谁炒动作特别慢的商品呢？但是人类能投资的类别到底有个限度，所以这个泡沫滚完了所有的类别以后，最后走向彻底爆破，这就是萧条，所有的sector都经历了overinvestment, overspeculation。滞胀就是所有生活必需品（商品）升到阿妈不认得，所有其他资产收入（房子股市债券工资）跌到阿爸不认得的最后阶段。Volcker是一个特例，当时的米国也有这个条件（还有后来苏联阵营崩溃的大馅饼），要不是他的话，咱们的明天1980年就上演了，不会推迟了28年。历史上来说，商品泡沫完蛋的时候就是革命战争来临的时候，因为农产品涨到大家吃不起，木材涨到大家不能取暖的时候打仗是唯一解决问题的方法，消灭了多余的人口农产品也就不值钱了。但是现代社会资源比较丰富，最可能的不是打仗而死人，而是好像东瀛那样经历了萧条大家都不生孩子，生育率骤降，人口都少了商品还炒什么炒？本老中作为种族上的老中，在这里很痛心地说，中土国要不是瞎搞乱搞，把自己的内部社会分配机制整顿好，不要搞那么多弄虚作假不要拼命存白条，今天的米国就是1929年前的英国，中土国就有可能成为1929年的米国，但是由于语言文化差异太大，中土国要取而代之的能力就算满打满算也不会超越当年米国替代英国。然而中土国放走了这样一个黄金机遇，咱们有生之年都不会看到第二个。现在的命运，米国还是1929年的英国，中土国绝对不是1929年的米国。
本老中偶像就是这样的人，不过走得比较早. 98年就囤白银了，囤了地面上1/6的白银，搞到白银联盟杯葛他，后来因为存储成本实在太高而放弃，SLV启动时的白银都是从他那里买的。他在90年代已经看到今天的命运，何等眼光！他自己常说，他的崛起在与他幸运的时机，刚好站在时代巨人的肩膀上，决不是谦虚，而是真正悟透世界的看法。本老中偶像一出一进全是恰到好处，除了努力，更多的是天分，他老人家天生出来就是该做投资的。
石油能源，粮食，贵金属基金很多，随便你挑. 见顶的次序是石油能源、粮食、最后是贵金属，所以不必太早进入最后见顶的类别，因为前期升幅不大，最厉害的升幅都在后期。德国、法国、英国、袋鼠国绵羊国甚至米国跟中土国比全是社会主义国家. 世界上最大、最原始最彻底的资本主义国家就是中土国。东瀛跟中土国相比是个共产主义国家, 要学习资本主义不必出国，大家都要去中土国学习，见识一下历史中已经被文明淘汰的原始资本主义。
港股2万点以上是没有支持点的，可以一路FXP下去. 2万点要是老共不放北水，也是没有支持点的，因为2万点的时候（也就是本老中进场时稍早）已经一直摇摇欲坠，不少指数外股票已经屡创新低，熊市开端的格局。直通车之说一出，3个月内从2万上到3万2，明把中土国老中当凯子。这次H股崩盘还带点放北水憧憬，97年红筹股崩盘的时候1个星期内完成50%跌幅，1个月内完成80-90%跌幅，根本无路可逃。这次的港散对北水幻想尚未破灭，不断入场接刀子。H股崩盘了，A股也不可能独善其身，因为两者的价格相差太远。只要有价格相差的地方，就有逐利的力量，不算平安、中石油这种大户回归式抢劫，老中散户肯定出现大量A股套现，地下汇款去港的情况。人类逐利的力量不可低估。现在港股唯一的支持点就是北水。老中里面，能跟本老中偶像并驾齐驱的只有李嘉诚，一年多前就公开说有泡沫，两三个月前身体力行，以航运巨子的身份沽清中概的航运股，在H股上市的时候也是最不积极买票支持的，就算买了一到封锁期马上沽清，不像李兆基那样死抓着不放。四叔这种忽然H股泡沫股神，不出一年就打回原型
2008.1.22 1am
现在的大方向是撤, 捞底的类别只限于农业、能源（特别是天然气），贵金属（特别是白银）。其他的全撤，A股不能沽空，所以只能撤，而且打死也不能进场接刀子。A股已转熊，就算政府迟点进场顶，外围已经全部被熊包围，中土国不是避险港，emerging在全世界转熊的情况下会更加熊，唯一的例外是老俄，1929的米国很可能就是他了，要是环球变暖的话本老中得开始学俄语。哪个白痴认为米国资金跑到中土国去避险输死他18辈子。要是A股继续暴跌，那么北水直通车肯定泡汤，可以一路FXP到新华指数再下一半左右。本来就是泡沫，要是按照国际的P/E(还不算其中E成份的垃圾），只有一半不到的价格。在熊市里面很可能还要跌过头。FXP出现得非常及时，要不然那里有那么轻松的双倍沽空方式？不会有任何大反弹，只会小弹. 这个就要参考上次97年红筹崩盘过程了，本老中认识一个亲自操盘的基金手，向他取经。据他的说法，外围的氛围并不差（米国欧洲经济都好），但是大户都有共识认为泡沫要爆了，一个出来接刀子的都没有，全是散户接，但是散户几乎都满仓，根本无法接，所以不少股票崩盘那两三天的线是直泻而下，完全没有承接力，所以一个星期内大红筹跌50%，小红筹跌80%，盘子大一点走都无法走。其实港散港基也不傻，大家都知道港股已经A股化，唯一的selling point就是北望神州有人更傻。经济实体来看，外围全是熊，珠三角工厂倒闭数以千计，出口数字将会很难看。股市来看，8月份的时候港股在19000-20000点左右徘徊，将跌未跌，所以从这里到20000点左右将会毫无阻力地跌，如果老共不马上出口术，最多反弹个几百点，然后继续往下自由落体。
消费将会崩溃，
负债直线上升是911后的事 其实也不能完全赖小布什，米国在吸金融毒这条路上走了很久。10年前，平均车贷只有2年，现在超过4年，很大一部分车贷under water，因为欠的车贷比车辆价值还高。10年前没有遍地开花的Options ARM, negative amortization,stated income home loans,02年以来不靠这个加州人民根本无法买房。10年前大学生毕业时的负贷不过是两三万，现在动辄10万以上。10年前米国人民的savings rate还是正的，现在已经负了好几年了。不要对消费抱任何幻想了，米国的消费就是两个字，崩盘，所以本老中对中印看法非常负面。这两个国家想拉动内需也不是一年半载的事，所以咱们崩他们也只好跟着崩。房产是上一波的泡沫资产，这一波怎么印钞票都受惠不了。房价会不会继续掉？看看东瀛现成的例子，从98年起接近零利息了10年，结果如何？房子是昔日光辉了，未来的光辉不属于他。你要有闲钱，敢赌的话放核能上，peak oil之后唯一的选择就是核发电，不理解的话找个基础物理问问所有carbon来源就知道了。你应该花钱买报告，本老中说的都是花钱买回来的数据. 所以不能在这里晒出来，因为没有版权。政府的数据质量最差，要详细的好的数据全部要自己买。Credit crunch is far from over, it's just begun。你就当本老中吓你，在这里跳大神好了，反正不出12个月的事，大家马上就能看到结果。昨天的环球大跌不过是个预习，好戏在后头。就算你看不到数字，在官方数字通胀明显升高而没有任何减退的情况下, 联储急急忙忙在3个多月内从5。25%降到3。5%，这个看起来是credit crunch 已经受到控制的样子吗？为什么华尔街还在叫嚣下个星期还要减息？为什么联储不出来否认？你难道不知道米国政府债券联储可以自己买自己，作为调节市场利率的的工具吗？你自己去股沟open market operations吧。还有一个地方你可以自己查数据，联储有官方的各个主要银行在联储的存款的汇报，你去比较最近一个月与整个07年度的分别。
新自由主义经济学neoliberalist，他们跟马克思犯一样的错误，高估人的智商与人性. 如果有一群智商都很高，都很有智慧的人在一起，那么新自由主义完全无政府主义可以行得通，因为每个人都知道如何充分保护自己，做出最能平衡小我大我的决定。这种情况基本上只在历史上出现过一次，老白殖民米国的时候，来的老白都是自我挑选最有奋斗开垦精神、体力脑力都超人，加上米国资源极大丰富，无政府的完全自由经济是最能激励生产力的方法。现在嘛，那叫做找死。因为社会里面智商分布不同，大部分人天生下来就是价值链上给人吃掉的，政府要是不给他们基本的保护，很快就贫富悬殊到无法忍受的地步，连少数的奴隶主都要给绝大部分的愤怒奴隶吞噬。只要社会上资源有限，智商分布不同，政府都非调节不成。布什提出过让所有人自己管理退休账户，就是典型的脑子给门夹过想法。股市是最吃人不吐骨头的地方，而且股市的基本就是少数人吃掉多数人，让这些多数人送羊入虎口，以后老了一名不文最后政府还不是头疼？混到什么层次自然就会有什么层次的邻居，有啥可吹？你要爬上去了以前的邻居跟你也就没啥关系，倒过头来跟他们有何可吹？好的朋友大家都知根究底，吹来影响友谊没什么好处。酒肉朋友的话，你比他混得好避开他都来不及，怕他借钱求办事什么的，自然不会跑到他面前吹。混得比自己好的酒肉朋友一样道理，避开你，你也吹无可吹。至于什么公众场合点头之交，除非对方有利用价值，你要让他知道你也有利用价值可以互相结盟利用利用，吹来也没什么实惠。中土国是个世界车间，不是世界工厂. 97年的时候，本老中有两个同学去香港工作，其中一个买了光大控股，当年的大红筹，P/E最高的时候超过500，一看干吗的，纺织、地产、造船，这些全是传统工业，利润多少前景多少掐指一算就出来了，那个时候炒的概念是全中土国一人给你一块钱，你就发了。但是今时今日，中土国的人均消费要在目前基础上大发，不是5年内可以做到的事。没有技术升级的产业，随时倒掉，6个月内广东已经有几千家厂倒闭，迁往越南与内陆，还有更多的倒闭潮，而且很多人津津乐道的“中土国产业链”，整块整块往越南搬。资本不对任何国家民族有感情，哪里成本更低就往哪里跑。世界车间可以随时搬走，数据滞后，等到反映出来的时候已经晚了。A股的问题不在于P/E，也不在于什么产业，而在于整个结构性的监管缺失，小股民是个提款机，可以短炒，不能长期投资。罗杰斯在Forbes访问自己承认到现在还没有持有A股，因为他不断说，if I bought, if I had held，都不知道那些中文媒体怎么翻译的。
高级精英一定要紧跟政权摆乎 你不搞政治，政治会搞到你头上来。当群众运动进入高潮，后果无可预计，这是群众心理互相渲染互相加强的问题，已经失去理性。你认为文革大炮机关枪武斗难道是老毛中央策划的？失控了也。
只要换了政权，除非觉得自己身怀绝技能够三朝不倒，都应该脚底抹油跑。不要说政权，你公司换了一个老总，都尚且要骨干大清洗，何况社稷乎？当初逃了的，起点跟那些没逃的高级狗腿奴隶主都一样，但是本人子女结局几乎无一例外更加好（除了荣毅仁这个招安例子outlier)，可见没逃就是错误的历史选择。
本老中觉得最有人生哲理的“小说”是教父（前二集）以后教育小孩，不用看其他杂7杂8的小说，红楼梦可以选取章节（12金钗副钗梦遗的就不必浪费时间），高老头要看完，但是可以反复看反复温习钻研的就是教父，前两集基本上把人生的道理全部说透了。书看来太累，电影凝聚了书的精华，每2-3分钟都有人生至理可以参透研讨。老中小说电影，没有一部可以超越教父，仰望都不行。教父第三集的水平掉了一大截，不过也可以看看。本老中是巴尔扎克迷，因为他的小说历史教训特别深刻。高老头，看看他怎么发的，面粉商哈，粮食商品大通胀的最后一期。拉斯涕涅一付手套多少法郎，干吗要一付手套需要他老家全力支持，都有整个商业计划成本计算。高老头的总资产多少，年息多少，怎么分配，全部一清二楚，让人对当时的物价、生活习俗一一了解。本老中重申，看巴尔扎克的小说能发达，绝对不能当成普通小说读，他的小说是真正的经济沿革历史。而且由于他本身出身富贵，对于有钱人的性格抓得一丝不差。其实大部分有钱人都是格朗台，不过有的外露，有的隐藏。跟很多其他的作家来说，他对他接触的奴隶主们描写特别传神，跟那些没有亲身经历作家写出来的完全不同。金庸小说可以抽离任何朝代历史背景 完全反映不到当时的思潮，当时的社会模型生活形态。人物来说，单薄得要命，没有动机没有性格层次，人的模版就几个来来去去，其实很沉闷。看他的书学不到东西，学不到怎么观察分析人，巴尔扎克是心理大师，教你如何通过一些人的语言、动作来分析他的性格、社会所处的层次，里面的人物都有血有肉啊。小说的经典就是非常真实地反映当时的民俗风情社会价值而且能精炼地概括人性。老中小说里面，能做到这一点的只有红楼梦，其他的小说只能叫做意淫，人物关系太过脸谱化，对于普通世俗的描写脱离现实，根本不可能通过作品了解当时生活。红楼梦里面，什么12金钗、宝黛钗、吃吃喝喝都是最差的部分，精华是凤姐弄权搞高利贷、抄大观园，探春李纨除兴弊，你看了那几章才知道这个家族的收支表是怎么搞的，人物之间的利益关系才看得清楚。一直被大家称为识大体的探春，其实是个为了自己前途心狠手辣的人，不惜把自己的亲母作为垫脚石一样踩上去。本老中也喜欢看法国小说，非常写实逼真，人物与人物、环境关系很让人信服，能从中学到世态，了解历史。老中的小说对于了解历史真实的一面毫无帮助，要意淫有老婆有成人片，不要浪费时间。老中的畅销书说明了普遍的老中鉴别能力 这是最终的软实力比较。本老中认为一个文化的高度，在于两种小说，一种是侦探推理小说，一种是科幻小说。老中在这两方面都是零，本老中看到过的中文科幻小说（那个什么倪匡）惨不忍睹，不合逻辑没有任何科普底子，根本读不下去，跟老白任何一位比较出名的都完全不是站在一个层次。老中在能拥有自己出色的推理侦探、科幻小说作家以前，都还是属于落后文明。不是单纯的想象力，而是在掌握了现实知识上建立的想象力
老共现在就剩下个架子，老毛分析国民党晚期统治完全套得上，大家都会观赏到老共解体的，别急，最重要的不是他解体与否，而是怎么能在他解体的过程中捞一把。这比他解体更加重要，不然的话只能欣赏烟花表演，没什么实质油水。
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本老中可以推荐用yahoo etf部分的screener,可以做到sector specific，但是不够齐全，因为etf每个星期都有好几个新的上市，所以最好时常对自己有兴趣的行业做搜索。yahoo上面挑了几个心里有概念的etf，然后去etfconnect看资料，因为yahoo的资料不全而且不准确，但是etfconnect没有行业的选择。看完了当然还得上etf本来的网站上看prospectus。本老中挑的基本上是没有ADR OTC的外国股票，以外汇债券为主，股票的话本老中还是宁愿亲自做功课，自己买，买得少而精。外汇债券里面，本老中推荐的有BWX, GIM，前者是其他国家的政府债券指数基金，后者也有大部分其他国家政府债券，以及一些高级数外汇债券，两个都是所有选择里最保守的外汇债券，没有杠杆，米披索越跌越受惠。本老中基本上拿着这两个ETF作为Money Market fund, 在等买股票的时候就把闲钱搁那里，比放在米披索CD的利息高，而且还不怕贬值。牛市末段的疯狂这两个月大家都见识了，其实这还没有到末末段。现在神华股票的总值比BHP,RIO加起来都高，但是神话的资产素质比后面两个差远了，泡沫跟东瀛爆煲前一样。但是本老中有个指标，东瀛爆煲的时候全世界10大市值他占了8个，中土国现在只占了4个，等到中土国企业占了8个或以上就是本老中完全撤出不再回头的时刻。然而升市莫猜顶，本老中对中土国老中的疯狂从来不敢低估。最好的策略就是现在把成本全部捞出来，剩下来的零成本继续持有，跟所有的疯狂老中斗耐心，斗疯癫，看看谁能成功捕捉最后那个浪尖。这不是单单钞票的问题，而是捕捉浪尖的那个心跳。
各种货币都有ETF，欧金FXE，澳金FXA，诸如此类，上yahoo finance网去查。这种可以用来炒外汇。比较懒的就买外币债券基金，American Century的BEGBX最好，因为Cheney都买了一千到两千万米披索，跟着影子总统走没错。本老中不喜欢买基金，特别喜欢ETF，本老中下重注的是GIM，基本上是本老中的money market fund，想不出买什么的先搁在那里收利息。还有一个推荐的是BWX，外国政府债券基金，横跨17个主要外币国家。顺便说一声，很多money market fund里面都有房贷成分，哪天出事不知道，所以本老中不用，GIM就是本老中的现金。直接买粮食期货指数，DBA.粮食公司很少，只有几个都已经炒上天。不过近来BG因为issue convertible大幅回落了10%，可以考虑在100左右吸纳。
中土国缺水必定造成大幅从国外进口粮食. 因为进口粮食就是进口水的一种途径，中土国本身的水不足以支持那么多农产品，到时候耕地倒不是最大的问题。本老中三年前就看到过几篇老白的研究报告，说中土国的水危机会迫使中土国购买粮食，而中土国的人口买什么都会推动环球价格。所以买粮食是个中期的投资，你进货了要等两三年才会高潮。联储就管短期ARM利息，这两次减息后长期30年房贷利息根本没跌。再减息的话反而要升，现在谁那么傻瓜肯借钱出去30年后收回米披索？就算大家都用ARM，米国能够联储零利息30年？用低利息ARM死撑买房就等于吸毒，利息一涨就歇菜，所以短期利息一定要越来越低才能撑下去，这种情况能够维持30年？10年都了不起了。东瀛奉行零利息多年了，结果房事怎么样？要跌一样跌。你去查一查历史，看看米国的历史上有多少年30年房贷是10%以上的，或者靠近10%。2003-2005的30年房贷利息是联储成立以来最低的。下面是1971年到现在的利率
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
如果联储不顾通胀，就把利息降到地板上的话，那么米披索也会变成跟废纸差不多，米披索的房价毫无意义，得看欧金角度的米国放价值多少。如果你在欧洲挣欧金，在米国借米披索买房，那会赚。要是在米国挣米披索，还米披索，根本没有油水可捞。因为这些新“发明”的贷款本身就不应该存在，不过是死撑的工具。现在在弯曲，自杀式Neg-am贷款已经没有了，而且在可见的将来也不会再出现，因为没有投资人。其实人类上演的一幕幕，全在历史中能找到相应的例子，所以文明的智慧在于记忆，因为人的智商并没有进展太多，大家今天能想到的，几十年，几百年，几千年以前都有过人想到而且试验过了。经济衰退不会一两年，这是一个10年的周期，逃不过的.但是大部分老中，只要不是在这拨买房潮里面昏头买泡泡房的，而且解决了身份问题，这就是老中这个祖群发迹的时代。在泡泡年代，不要什么勤劳头脑大家都能发财，但是财的内涵也给冲淡了，财的意思是比别人多才是财，大家都是百万毫宅那个宅就等于个屁。在经济困难的年代，老中这种谨慎勤恳的民族最赚，而且老中都是cash rich。大家好好保存实力，把钱房子实物资产里面，等到外面腥风血雨的时候就出动做秃鹰。知道李嘉诚怎么真正发迹的嘛？就是64年香港暴动，房子掉到几分之一，地皮更加不值钱，他大手搜购，熬过了以后奠定了地产大亨的位置。香港小甜甜龚如心跟她老公，就是在暴动的同期疯狂搜购当时差不多白送的新界土地，不然日后也不能从一个普通的商人变成几百亿身价的巨富。咱们这些读书出身小钱有点的，不是每个人都能中上市彩。没有这种大时代的变迁，很难完成从小富到巨富的转变。
2007-11-09
日元已经上升到111，8月份日元两天内完成122到113的升势，结果什么都跌个四脚朝天，全球股票暴跌，各种工业金属粮食商品石油主要carry trade货币澳币纽币统统跌，澳币从靠近0。9跌到0。77，连欧金都被殃及，心脏不好的8月就暴毙了。日元是提供全世界流动资金的最大来源，日元一上，很多借了日元的hedge funds就要完蛋了，这是万朝归宗，迟早要发生的。但是这次日元上升到111很有意思，黄金不跌，石油不跌，欧金澳币不跌（不跌就是跌幅小到可以忽略），但是全球股票都跌。这就是说一个新趋势已经形成，资本市场已经认为，滞胀，不是通胀啊，滞胀不可避免，即使日元讨债的号角已经吹响，抗通胀的类别与公认的安全港类别已经不会被抛售，当日元unwinding结束的时候，升势将会是非常凌厉，石油在未来两个月内应该会站稳在一百以上。同时，资金认为全球经济会衰退，所以石油能源商品类以外的股票全部都大跌，而且逃离发展中国家的脚步会加快，在经济衰退的时候，大家都寻求安全避风港，发展中国家有各种问题不能成为安全港，所以欧金年底可能破1。5。H股在这种大势上来说，资金市的基本面已经无肉可吃（股票的基本面一早就一塌糊涂，本老中不过在等资金市尾声），很明显资金逃离米国并不跑到香港，而是继续购买实质资产，货币上最受益的是日元、欧金。现在日元不过是从115-117升到111，要是重复8月的升幅，米股、港股、欧股的跌幅会更加可怕，而且这种升幅完全不可测，看的是momentum，可以完全因为市场心理的逆转排山倒海。还在炒股的眼睛一定要盯着日元，日元过了110赶紧逃命。因为日元利息低，持有成本高，建议不要大量购买, 日元要真的冲破100，金融秩序都要打乱了，到时最好的是持有黄金，沽空米股港股指数。东瀛的股票也会跌，但是因为有日元上升的因素在内，不知道是货币上升多还是股票下跌多，以米披索结账的日经指数最好不要赌。要是经济衰退,恐怕能源商品类也会跌. 黄金不是能源，是最后的避风港，是货币。石油要很晚才跌. 粮食不会跌，因为经济衰退不衰退都要吃饭，而且因为大量的农田用来种植能源，这个供需要两三年才能完全反映。不要低估老日，高估老共，原料飞涨最受打击的就是那些消耗效率低下的国家，最受益的就是消耗效率高的国家，这就不用本老中挑明哪个国家最倒霉了吧。
殖民主义定义是外来者到当地，获取比当地人比例更大资源，奴役原居民.米国老中最好也能弄张原料国家护照就高枕无忧了.米国未来10几年很不好混，如果各位都混到高级狗腿，或者有希望混到高级狗腿，那又不必担心，反而是狗腿变奴隶主的大好机会。这社会要时不时洗牌，不洗牌的话泥腿子怎么进城做新贵族？不好混的，尤其是还没混到绿卡的，赶紧去原料国家接着混，原料供应与需求都是个漫长的调整过程，所以原料周期都是15年左右的，现在还剩下10年，人的生活期望一调高降下来就很难，而且跟能源有关的，那是钢需，铀价会飞升。要混护照得早，前10年是世界移民高潮，世界经济一不行所有国家就会收紧移民提高门槛。但是米国不好混，比米国更加不好混的就是中土国，因为中土国崩溃论之所以还没有兑现的根本原因在于中土国背靠米国，米国靠印刷钞票延长了繁荣，推迟了衰退，但是来的总要来，加倍奉还罢了。中土国就是米国胖子摔跤倒下下面那块沙包，日后最倒霉的就是中土国的奴隶跟低级狗腿所谓白领，他们将承受大部分米国衰退的后果。中土国扛的是白条，产业技术升级现阶段无望，大量本来供应自足的资源现在依赖进口，本来好好的全国自行车偏偏在石油峰值时代变成面子汽车，本来收入较为平均变成贫富悬殊，世界经济萧条的规律就是所有发达国家关大门，发展中国家社会动荡与自然灾难的条件已经成熟，就是看4年内怎么爆发，形式如何，深度广度如何，不然本老中父母在中土国好好享福日子不过出来坐移民监干吗？幸运的就是中土国军事能力有限，国内也摆不平，危机爆发的时候没有挑战米国霸权的能力，不然的话就可能打仗了，咱们又要面对老共清零的威胁。中土国高级老中有条件、嗅觉灵敏的都已经部署撤退，就剩下那些盲目自大的还以为能够趁米国弱取而代之做白日梦。不管中土国荡不荡，奥运前开始沽空香港上市的中概，特别是出口贸易有关的，又能发笔小财了，资本主义就是好，管你繁荣还是动荡打仗，都不耽误发财。
1。米披索不是一个稳定的store of value。现在高峰还没到来，FDIC, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae全部出现周转问题，要印多少米披索才够？2。花钱很容易，你要本老中帮你花多少钱都能花光。你要有这个忍耐力把自己的欲望压制到基本生存，不需要多少米披索也能活下去。安全感的来源在于你的物质欲望，不在于你有多少米披索或者黄金，能够很快满足欲望的就很快就感到安全。3。土地多了是累赘，你要现囤了10几20亩地，流动性低脱手都没法脱，每年county让你清除杂草防山火，交地税你就够烦了。房子也一样，本老中认识个信奉地产的台湾女老中在弯曲买了7、8栋房子收租，管理租客搬进搬出、维修水管家居、处理税务就够她烦了，现在猛说后悔不如炒股票，前一段时间还跟租客打官司因为半年以上收不到租金。如果你非要个数字，自住的房子不论价值可以随时完全付清，最好后院有个半亩左右可供一家人粮食所需，靠近不污染的河涧水源，基本生存不必担忧了。至于额外的黄金白银石油类，都不是自己能完全控制，因为上医院教育小孩甚至出门买菜吃饭旅游都要整个社会能够良好运作，社会运作垮了你多少钱都没用。
人有很多等，同种族内劣等的人无序繁殖，就会造成那个种族的精英受到连累，虽然暂时奴役那些低等奴隶可以榨取剩余价值，但是长期下去不能跟整个种族都能提升的智商文明竞争相比。中土国的现实就是，劣等老中奴隶太多了，所以老共对于现代文明贡献最大的就是计划生育，就是不该一刀切，有钱有教育的，放开生。没钱没教育的底层老中，用各种手段让他们不要生，方法可以是农民独生子女政府提供到高中为止的免费教育，如果生多过一个从小学起政府就不提供任何免费教育资源，当然这些免费资源的素质看菜吃饭，素质不能跟富裕地区的相比。中土国的农民，经过那么多千年的流动，又能造反又能科举又能经商还能靠婚嫁改变命运，要是混来混去还是呆在底层，老实说都是物竞天择被反复淘汰的基因，老天爷一早不眷顾了。拖着他们上路，根本就是给老中文明添堵。中土国这块地方，13亿人严重超载（据说实际数字是16亿），所以搞得劣币驱逐良币，把有能力有危机意识的逼走，剩下来还想做点什么的怎么都搞不过靠10亿奴隶思维奴隶行为的底层老中，因为社会本质还是他们决定的。提升这些人的思想意识，根本是不可能的事，因为学校只会主导一部分，家庭教育是主要，天天跟着愚昧的父母潜移默化，不愚昧才怪。千万不要低估愚昧大众，不要说中土国，米国这里的南方（不说南方，加州中部就有）愚昧大众也很要命，唯一没让他们闹出大事来就是依赖天然资源雄厚，而且人数不是绝对性压倒。那些所谓农村里面走出来的，你去问问，他们祖上有没有出过什么人物？答案几乎都是正面的，不过是时运低落一时沦落在农村，无论如何，总有一天他们都会以不同的形式走出来，本老中接触过的所谓农村同学一寻根问底祖上都是有过积累，不是真正的文盲农民。这里老帮菜接触过的同学朋友都是中土国的中层以上，真正的底层愚昧农民怕是跟大家完全没有一点共同语言。比较中土社会各阶层与先进国家，相对最低劣的就是知识阶层和精英群体。清末和民国时，同样是知识阶层、高等华人相对最低劣. 怎么都比现在的好多了。清末民国，整个民族都有灭顶的危险，混成那样是整体民族水平下降，没办法。那是因为现存的知识阶层所谓精英群体. 是老毛立国后靠贫农身份才能上大学完成学业的，等到这个矫枉过正的一代过去了，本来哪儿来的还该哪儿去。这些人就算集聚了钱，也没有这个本事传下去。现在卡位的都是那一代的人？你跟年轻一点的打交道素质就高很多. 50岁这一代的卡位老不死素质最差中土国都已经有了公论。为什么文革在中土国会闹了10年，而在巴黎公社只闹了几个月就破产？原因在于基层官僚的支持，不在于群众，群众没资源，不给饭吃不发工资闹什么闹。主要原因在于整个中土国的社会架构给打破了，这是老毛一生的梦想，打破旧有秩序。但是他不理解经过千年以上沉淀的秩序有它本来的自然规律与深层因素。现在的金融贸易大跃进不过是文革的一个变异，原因就是搞这一套的都是同一个年代翻身作主的贫民。
黑色星期五那么惨烈，不过是这几年的事,本老中第一次体验是97年，开门前半个小时去排队，稀稀落落没几个人，都是些老黑老墨老中，老白都没几个，开门了也没有一哄而上，大家都会数数，降价的商品还不及得等开门的多。本老中当时还赞叹说，资本主义商品极大丰富，大减价了人民都没兴趣来。感恩节闹到现在这个样子只有一个原因，底层米国奴隶越来越多，每分每毛都要算过.
中东老伊配合米国出口术降低油价，方便米国减息，不然的话太不好交代，油价飙升的情况下降息无法说得过去。所以减息一完成，油价还是会冲破百元大关。OPEC峰值已过，增产量增个屁，要有这个能力一早增了.
汇丰银行的作风全球属于最保守的，一下子都要撇帐350亿，把off-balance-sheet的亏损揽上身。现在的银行、金融机构全是潘多拉的宝盒，off-balance-sheet的亏损大得惊人可以随时吃掉整家银行。不然的话Citi这种级别的银行，在米联储短期利率5%都不到的情况下需要出11%借钱？这个spread大得可怕，放到房贷上要全面反映的话，现在买房30年的贷款全部要超过15%，资金面有多糟糕就知道了。12月5日AIG要披露亏损，现在为止保险公司还没有披露，他就要打开另一个潘多拉垃圾箱了，一下子又多一个行业搭进去。现在的市场比本老中当初预计还差，不是什么买股票挣钱的时候，而是怎么保证你的财富不给挥发的时代。账面上，你的基金未来几年不会大跌，因为联储还有大量钞票要印来救火，购买力上，买基金基本上都是亏，只能有选择地作战，挑选衰退萧条期表现不受影响的传统行业，或者赌一把新兴能源，新兴产业。所谓contingent liabilities里面的5%不到，整个问题资产是8000亿。你信不信350亿撇完了里面其他7650亿的CDO, CDS, SIV全部都是完美无瑕一点撇帐都不需要的呢？这还是全球最保守的大银行，米国银行素以进取作风闻名，那个潘多拉的垃圾箱有多大可想而知。如果买bond保证你的钱慢速给挥发掉如果你不在意购买力，只在意账面数字，那么买米国国债最安全。如果你在意米披索的购买力，米国国债保证你的资金给稳定地安全地挥发掉，所以你应该买西欧国家债券。如果你在意货币的购买力，西欧的国家债券也能保证你的资金给稳定地安全地挥发掉（不过他们的挥发期起步稍晚），所以你必须冒险买能源贵金属等等抗通胀的工具，告别稳定安全的利息收入。高通胀期，尤其是高滞胀期，买债券是大忌。现在的年代就是，你不怎么需要的会跌（例如房子），你物理存在非要不可的就要涨（例如粮食水源）。财富需要一个store of value才能反映。在货币时代米披索就是这个store of value，不然咱们怎么能够比较孔雀毛？现在米披索的保值功能越来越少了，大家信心开始崩溃，就要开始找其他的实物来代替，所以现代的能源粮食就是猿人时代的石器工具，是财富的保值手段。你要把握了基本面，一个星期的波动有什么可怕的。基本面就是，最大的reset潮还在前面，从2008上半年到2010才完成，而且这是倒骨牌，Goldman2006年有过一张图表，当时的房价来说，米国所有有按揭的房屋里面10%左右已经是负资产，最多按揭百分比的成数是30-40%占了所有房屋的一半，房价再掉个20-30%就全部搭进去了。按揭垃圾的影响无远弗届，连佛罗里达政府都着道了要停止属下机构回赎基金不然佛罗里达政府雇员全体倒霉。这种情况联储不减息不印钞票就好像让狗不吃屎一样难。90年初的S&L规模比这小多了，政府怎么解决？印钞票。短期来说市场都能被操纵，长期来说只有服从经济规律一条路走。未来考虑的是depression要维持多长，而不是会不会recession。按照你和Micro的看法，好像现在和未来几年买粮食，能源，金属类的基金会赚?不是赚，而是保持购买力。这个阶段的游戏叫做保持购买力.现在最麻烦的是衍生工具，占所有金融机构的投资工具一半以上，但是衍生工具不过怎么衍生法，最终的价值只有一个浮标可靠-房价。衍生工具的价值都是一环扣一环，一个死了拉倒一大片，所以在衍生工具歇菜的过程中，所有东西的价值全部都会受到影响。如果政府啥都不干，那么所有东西的价值全部都会跌个半死。但是政府啥都不干那么这个政府就别干下去了，所以政府必定会干的就是大印钞票维持基本的社会运作。然而印了的钞票不会再回到这些衍生工具或者房子股票上，而是寻求下一个自保工具，因为钞票太多信不过。这是商品贵金属会上的根本原因。现在这个阶段就是政府印钞票与衍生工具大歇菜交替的时候，联储最终的方向就是把利息降到东瀛那样，他愿意不愿意都没办法，因为历史的剧本已经写好了。
干吗老拿米国案例套中土国？要是中土国有同样的社会资源人文环境大家还在米国做海外老中干吗？法律就是当地资源能够负荷的道德体现和约束，老说这种不着边际的废话干吗？中土国毕竟是个独立的国家，他要有什么样的法律是他的考虑他的事，轮到你管？法律在有效、公平以外，还要有执行的基础，不然的话法律就变成道德竞赛白纸一张，说了白说。闲房应该卖，而且钱要拿出来，不然困在里面也无出路. 中土国投资渠道非常有限，跟银行存款比，泡沫极大的股市比，房子已经是最好的保值渠道。米国消费如果突然消失的话（明年有这个具体危险），人民披索要面对的是贬值，对米披索贬值，而不是升值。因为到了那个时候，米国根本没有必要强迫人民披索升值，而中土国被唱衰到现在还没衰的原因在于米国的借贷消费还在那里挺着中土国。全球主要货币的年供应量增长这三年都是双位数. 米国M3从06年三月开始不披露了，所以大家就靠猜。全球性通货膨胀已经发生，不过是下游国家（中土国）特别明显，上游国家欧洲米国不明显而已。等到下游国家扛不动被迫全面输出通胀而不是靠自己奴隶吸收，上游国家的好日子就到头了。
没必要啃别人的评论，直接啃他老师的所有著作. 特别是那本security analysis, 翻来覆去地啃到自己尽量明白为止，就知道其中的不朽。那些系数未必要完全参照，但是基本道理千古不变。股神对他老师的著作身体力行，咱们悟性不高，能啃到一半下辈子想穷也很难。
外汇本老中只对趋势有信心，具体到每个星期是赌博. 股神2005年都不看好米披索而开始有生以来第一次玩外汇，结果在米披索中长线趋势大弱的情况下都认栽出局，因为低估了布什的一年企业海外资产回笼免税的威力，05年成为近年米披索下降通道中唯一的反弹年。结果股神总结他不能玩外汇，只能看准外汇趋势来中长期投资股票。股神都吃不准的东西本老中更加不敢碰。不过本老中有不少袋鼠币，贪其高息原料支持，买了好几年经历过不少日元unwinding惊涛骇浪，5年平均下来表现不错，要是每年结账就头大了，所以本老中没有这个本事玩外汇短期。日元因为老日干涉因素，加上息小，只能小赌。
让本老中心情不好只有一个方法，让本老中亏钱，其它一概没用。
生活简单物质需要低是价值投资者的必需条件.不那么做就无法成为一个成功的价值投资者。价值投资就是能看清事物本质，完全无视包装，生活里面能满足基本需要的要价很便宜，全是那些零售商的品牌包装才让虚荣的冤大头给溢价。虚荣与价值投资完全背道而驰. 更重要的就是，价值投资着一定要有守的能力，因为发掘价值需要勇气，需要给市场足够的时间来发现你一早发现的东西，因为最终市场都会走向事实认知。
这不仅不能缓死，而且后遗症很大. 这样玩了，日后谁肯做ARM的投资者？你愿意吗？这只能让现在的ARM持有者受益（而且符合条件比较高），日后的ARM只有更紧，谁脑子进水借钱出去让政府freeze rate? 这也就是能抵挡洪水几个月让华尔街出货，对于实际情况毫无影响。现在这种情况华尔街的分析员一个说卖的都没有，只有hold，利益所在嘛。这次爆煲越来越精彩，连华尔街后院Connecticut州政府都给绕进去了，paypal，各大证券商money market fund全有着道的。这还不算，下一波必然爆发的就是信用卡贷款垃圾，很多信用卡都打包上市了。现在是最好的挑选retailer沽空的时机，一月份报告出来就能获利，不少retailers将会在这次危机中破产，因为这5年扩张过速，借贷过多。
12.08
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手上多过一套中土国房产的可以现在放掉了. 中土国房产这两个月见顶了，崩起来将会排山倒海很好看，要是自己住着无所谓反正也要瓦遮头，要是投资的话可以炒房炒成负资产业主。老共在通货膨胀与经济衰退里面已经有明显讯号选择后者。本老中家的旧老板蒋钧座就是死在通货膨胀上的，金圆券奠定了他偏安台湾的命运。现在中土国农民数量减少，城市化迅速大量农民涌进城市成为城市贫民也就是古代所谓的流民，通胀失控起来他们就是暴动的主力，农民倒不怕通胀反正自己种自己吃。上海本来是铁杆国字号，金圆券一来马上挺共，所以这在历史上都是有借鉴的。老共在两难之中选择了让房产、股市泡沫完蛋来保存江山。这个也意味着老共大量抛售米披索的行动就快来到。国内收缩银根没用，你要盯死米披索咱们印多少你还得印多少。但是大幅升值人民披索又因为产业问题无法做到，所以老共主要能做的无非是把米披索存款大量换成其他币值、实物。A股奥运前还有可能产生一波行情创新高，奥运后股市将崩溃.可惜没有沽空机制，不然的话本老中希望他创新高，沽起来才过瘾。希望做中土国秃鹰的还能去香港股市上玩。每一次这种大行情转变就是财富大转移的机会，一定要牢牢把握。今年无论买黄金、粮食还是石油，回报都不会及得做秃鹰。香港的阿里巴巴就是一个上佳的目标，完全可以重演toys.com的壮观情形。当年toys.com让很多纸上富贵消失，但是本老中恰好认识一个沽空的沽成奴隶主。金砖四国本老中就沽中印，这两个都是资源穷国. 米国歇菜了，中土国印度只会死得更难看。本老中一定不敢沽老毛子。如果你要稳当，不要想着明年就卖，黄金高潮远远没到.但是黄金上落真的很大，所以本老中不怎么建议别人买很多，除非你心理素质特强，买了就别看，降息周期不过去以前都是黄金大牛市，但是波动大。你要08年稳妥的，买粮食。中土国今年开始限制粮食出口了，以前是有减税补贴的。本老中读过不少报告，中土国开始缺粮了。未来10年的投资主题就是，卖粮给中土国吃，卖水给中土国喝。老毛在深挖洞广积粮方面非常有远见，一个人口大国当粮食供应出现问题的时候，就是把柄抓在别人手上。现在中土国主流媒体都在那里死鸡撑饭盖说粮食供应足够，根本不知道国外很多追踪的报告比中土国本身的更加专业，大旱大涝、工业商业用地转换、抢占农田，改种其他非粮食农作物，全部都是朝农产品炒家最心花怒放的方向发展。米国只有3%的农民人口，要不是认识到保证粮食供应，怎么会让大家补贴农民那么多年？这就是有前瞻的政策。老毛有很多政策对于一般不能出国的老中来说，都是有长远利益的。一个大国，连自己粮食都让人摸清了底崛什么起，撅屁股就差不多
米国有好几个行业的大公司会破产，要沽的赶早. 一路沽到他们见阎王。跟房屋有关的大件消费 - 家具类(IKEA唯一例外，不过他也不上市）、游艇类、房屋设备类、无聊家庭用品类（比如画框啊、垃圾摆设啊）。这些类别除了技术内容很低外还有一个汇率大风险，都是靠中土国抗着才能提供廉价，人民披索升个10%，这里经济萧条又不能提价，立马完蛋。电子品销售 - 电子品销售是inventory风险最大的，一卖不出12个月后存货全是废品价金融类别 - 低处未算低，总有好几家会倒闭，就看有没有这个眼光挑中了
中土国最高层的那些奴隶主阶级，混进去最容易的方式不是去中土国，而是培养小老中在米国的贵族寄宿学校、常青藤大学与他们结交通婚。你去中土国怎么才能结识到这些华能中金大老板式的奴隶主？竞争太激烈了，不如等他们的子弟来米国自投罗网。这些头等中土国的奴隶主阶级联盟已经牢如金汤，除了这种办法，根本无法混得进，家族之间形成垄断，下面的不要妄想晋升。如果是做个普通的老中奴隶主，那个财富回报不过是米国的高等狗腿相同，这里都坐稳了的高等狗腿，去哪里赶什么热闹？本老中对于能够号令成千上万个老中奴隶这些虚荣不感兴趣，只对财富回报，财富的控制能力感兴趣，老中奴隶本身价值不高，在他们身上榨取剩余价值效率也低。况且头等奴隶主以下的小奴隶主不好当，一不小心就会被形势、制度清零（所以移民最多的就是这群），而且他们也不过是被米国的奴隶主甚至高级狗腿所奴役。米国最大的好处是阶层之间互相清零过程温和多了，可以靠多代积累上位，总之方向对了，抓住脉搏，成为头等奴隶主不过是个时间的问题。在中土国那个时间紧迫性高，而且赚到了不能积累首先要转移。奴隶主的空位主要靠科技发展来创造，传统垄断性行业根本不可能产生新空位。中土国的科技创新嘿嘿嘿，职位空缺很难创造，大家觉得奴隶主晋升机会高不过是过去20年从社会主义到资本主义巨变中突然产生的一次性机会，今后不会重复（除非又出现49年式的清零，那又是一个冒险家的乐园机会了）。哪里的头等奴隶主在传统行业，都是垄断性阶级联盟，行业不改变巨头来来去去都是那几个家族。但是只要有科技创新新行业的产生，这些联盟就会被破坏。所以对有野心的社会阶层来说，一定要找创新不断的社会猫着，才能有新机会涌现。硅谷所产生的新富，绝大部分都是狗腿出身，不是奴隶主的子弟。你要求奴隶直接上位不现实，因为他们没有这个见识。但是一个社会只要给狗腿不停创造新机会，已经相对公平。
老共的清零在于把自己种族内传统的商业智慧清光了. 所以那么多年来重新交学费，而且还有一段时间要好好交。其实他要清零本老中也明白，每个新朝开始都要奖励自己功臣，但是老毛的荒谬在于他认为自己是上帝，而且他在出身上有强烈的自卑情结，偏要颠覆传统的老中文化社会秩序，什么越低贱的越高贵，把大家族里面存续多代的智慧全部清光了，好吧，现在就清剩下你们这些奴隶文化，自个儿慢慢玩儿好了。老邓就比老毛高明多了，他懂得历史的规则，有些多年积累的秩序有其存在的必要，人力无法推翻，因为老邓没有性格上的自卑。要是老毛跑到印度去，印度就惨了，本身就没有能力让奴隶吃饱饭，还要去鼓动他们平权，到时印度根本无法住人。每个种族能生存到现在都有自己的生存智慧，现在的老中文化看起来哪有半分几千年文明的睿智
Q by tom_cat对于大部分普通投资者，买贵金属，能源和commodity是一件很扯淡的事，原因很简单，就是这些个玩意儿都是风险极高的东西，而且它们的价格浮动往往是speculation－driven，波动很大。普通投资者应该学的第一课是risk-averse，而不是performance-chasing。更重要的是不要总想着beat market，你的第一件事应该是beat inflation，用CD rate和bond来benchmark自己。另外一个经常在网上看到的扯淡就是对美元贬值的大惊小怪。对于一般美国人来说，除了出国旅游的时候以外，基本上美元贬值对日常生活影响不大。一个简单的例子就是人民币对美元猛涨，国内老百姓的钱反而更不值钱。更有意义的数据是cpi。第三个扯淡就是对social security危机的大惊小怪，美国social security的不平衡是以后75年欠4trillion，30年内基本上是平衡的，就是说30年内退休失业的人都会老有所养。打个比方就是你手机att一个月交60元，你在以后20年就欠了att一万四，但你以后20年的预算只有一万。当然social security有自己的问题，而且需要解决。但根本没那么可怕。
本老中同意1，不同意2、3 by 老中一号2的原因在于米披索的贬值效应还没有全面反映出来，生活用品的价格变动比货币价值慢得多，因为生活用品的价格要照顾到顾客跑路，需求缩减。原油的价格在gasoline的零售价上面有滞后、政治上的因素干扰，但是不代表这个效应会消失，最后还是会全面反映。所以米国的通胀，真正的危机还没到，要多等一年半载才会在市面反映出来。中土国的货币升值对于米国已经非常温和，才上了个10%左右，如果人民披索好像欧金那么上，米国人民的生活价格就会大大不同。中土国的问题是他们处于价值链的底层，帮米国人民分忧抗着通胀。中土国大量进口的原材料国家，相对米国货币升值了50%以上，铁矿石加价起来一年就100%以上，但是这些价格在人民披索上反映了没有？所以中土国老中觉得通胀不可忍受，因为他们被迫分担本来应该由米国人民承担的通胀。而且这不过是个开始。SS所谓的老有所养是账面上的，购买力上不可能达到。不过任何人退休都不应该对政府承诺有任何期望，给了政府的钱，基本上都是肉包子打狗。因为政府的支出永远增长得比收入快,如果政府出现赤字，他会先欠政府员工的工资还是欠你的养老金？2001年的时候米国赤字还没到今天的地步，克林顿好不容易在账面上算是扯平了三年，而且2001年的时候米披索挟科技产业发飚的余威对欧金是0.85，对枫叶币是1.6！每年的养老金，救济金indexing都是参照DOL发表的cpi，你相信过去5年的cpi平均才只有2%？炒石油的人都知道，每个月第二个星期二左右油价一定会相对低沉，原因是cpi的sampling就是那个时候做。所以大家都会做，炒低了让DOL录得低数字，方便联储减息，然后才能更加往上炒。郎咸平没有高论，他也不过是个走江湖卖唱的.高人看到问题，在股票市场直接挣钱去了，怎么解决问题不是高人的问题，是政府的问题，不在其位，不谋其政。郎咸平卖的是门票费，跟大家的操作盈利方式不太一样。不要把国家跟个人混为一谈.米国是第一强国，也有很多混成流浪汉，就算护照能去任何地方他也没钱去，流浪汉更加连申请护照的钱都没有。中土国就算不堪，也有奴隶主能拿着因公护照到处去，而且吃喝玩乐都讲究，买个外国护照易如反掌。自己混得好比国家混得好重要得多，拿国家整体形象来套个人成就没意思。民国的时候能去外国的都不是穷鬼，当然不要签证，因为老中奴隶哪里出得起几年工资50大洋坐轮船？老中奴隶主无论在民国时期、老共时期，去哪里都不是问题，如果觉得有这样那样的困难那是因为在中土国没混好。就说护照的话，老日的比老米的好用，因为咱们去不了古巴，去不了朝鲜，更加不能去伊朗、伊拉克、什么什么斯坦这些国家，那是给恐怖分子送人质。老日拿着护照这些地方都能去。
2008.01.20
每一次印钞票钞票就要找出路. 印钞票除了政府monetize debt（就是无偿给债项保底外），就是靠债项的发水。你想，那么多CDO, CDS, MBS都怎么来的？米国的华尔街主要就干一回事，monetize future cashflow，把预计的、计划的、吹牛的做梦的明天的后天的钱全部在今天折现，这就是金融的本质。股价也好，债券也好，全部都是折现未来的现金流。但是未来的钱谁都还没拿到手啊，那咋办呢？借钱。钱是怎么借出来的呢？银行的fractional reserve制度，银行只有10块钱，可以借出100块，只要他在会计制度上入账就行了。当大家都习惯于未来现金流折现的时候，一些资产的价格就会越来越高，直到有一天大家都发觉再乐观的吹牛估计也无法兑现这些未来的现金流。这就是泡沫爆破的时候。但是过去20年来，每一次泡沫爆破都是靠政府印钞票解决，政府包底S&L（上一次房产爆破），政府注资金融机构解救LTCM，政府在911后把利息降到地板等等等。历史的规律就是，新印的钞票永远不会回去爆破完了的sector，每一次印钞票的结果就是造就新的资产泡沫。不仅米国如此，东瀛中土国全是如此，老日老中都不让银行破产，不良资产剥离了N次还在那里半死不活，政府无底线支持。这种态度只会让泡沫越来越大。所有泡沫里面，最后出现的泡沫就是商品泡沫，这是一个大历史的循环。为什么？因为泡沫的出现造就社会资源流向不平衡，internet容易挣钱大家都去搞网站，炒房容易挣钱大家都去炒房，那么社会上其他的部分呢？Underinvestment就出现了。所以每种资产泡沫都是对这个资产以外的类别的投资惩罚。商品相对所有其他的股票、房子、债券类别，投资周期特别长，反应特别慢，投资油钻通常有20-30年使用期，投资一个发电站的设备有50年的使用期，而且市场永远一窝蜂，上一波投多了一霉就要霉20、30年，等到发觉设备不够用了重新开始投资的时候pick-up时间就需要5年以上。所以股市从盛转衰的周期是4年，商品的盛转衰周期是15-20年。这也是为什么商品一定是所有泡沫的终结者，因为要不是其他能快速行动的类别全炒完了（所以房市泡沫一定晚过股市泡沫），谁炒动作特别慢的商品呢？但是人类能投资的类别到底有个限度，所以这个泡沫滚完了所有的类别以后，最后走向彻底爆破，这就是萧条，所有的sector都经历了overinvestment, overspeculation。滞胀就是所有生活必需品（商品）升到阿妈不认得，所有其他资产收入（房子股市债券工资）跌到阿爸不认得的最后阶段。Volcker是一个特例，当时的米国也有这个条件（还有后来苏联阵营崩溃的大馅饼），要不是他的话，咱们的明天1980年就上演了，不会推迟了28年。历史上来说，商品泡沫完蛋的时候就是革命战争来临的时候，因为农产品涨到大家吃不起，木材涨到大家不能取暖的时候打仗是唯一解决问题的方法，消灭了多余的人口农产品也就不值钱了。但是现代社会资源比较丰富，最可能的不是打仗而死人，而是好像东瀛那样经历了萧条大家都不生孩子，生育率骤降，人口都少了商品还炒什么炒？本老中作为种族上的老中，在这里很痛心地说，中土国要不是瞎搞乱搞，把自己的内部社会分配机制整顿好，不要搞那么多弄虚作假不要拼命存白条，今天的米国就是1929年前的英国，中土国就有可能成为1929年的米国，但是由于语言文化差异太大，中土国要取而代之的能力就算满打满算也不会超越当年米国替代英国。然而中土国放走了这样一个黄金机遇，咱们有生之年都不会看到第二个。现在的命运，米国还是1929年的英国，中土国绝对不是1929年的米国。
本老中偶像就是这样的人，不过走得比较早. 98年就囤白银了，囤了地面上1/6的白银，搞到白银联盟杯葛他，后来因为存储成本实在太高而放弃，SLV启动时的白银都是从他那里买的。他在90年代已经看到今天的命运，何等眼光！他自己常说，他的崛起在与他幸运的时机，刚好站在时代巨人的肩膀上，决不是谦虚，而是真正悟透世界的看法。本老中偶像一出一进全是恰到好处，除了努力，更多的是天分，他老人家天生出来就是该做投资的。
石油能源，粮食，贵金属基金很多，随便你挑. 见顶的次序是石油能源、粮食、最后是贵金属，所以不必太早进入最后见顶的类别，因为前期升幅不大，最厉害的升幅都在后期。德国、法国、英国、袋鼠国绵羊国甚至米国跟中土国比全是社会主义国家. 世界上最大、最原始最彻底的资本主义国家就是中土国。东瀛跟中土国相比是个共产主义国家, 要学习资本主义不必出国，大家都要去中土国学习，见识一下历史中已经被文明淘汰的原始资本主义。
港股2万点以上是没有支持点的，可以一路FXP下去. 2万点要是老共不放北水，也是没有支持点的，因为2万点的时候（也就是本老中进场时稍早）已经一直摇摇欲坠，不少指数外股票已经屡创新低，熊市开端的格局。直通车之说一出，3个月内从2万上到3万2，明把中土国老中当凯子。这次H股崩盘还带点放北水憧憬，97年红筹股崩盘的时候1个星期内完成50%跌幅，1个月内完成80-90%跌幅，根本无路可逃。这次的港散对北水幻想尚未破灭，不断入场接刀子。H股崩盘了，A股也不可能独善其身，因为两者的价格相差太远。只要有价格相差的地方，就有逐利的力量，不算平安、中石油这种大户回归式抢劫，老中散户肯定出现大量A股套现，地下汇款去港的情况。人类逐利的力量不可低估。现在港股唯一的支持点就是北水。老中里面，能跟本老中偶像并驾齐驱的只有李嘉诚，一年多前就公开说有泡沫，两三个月前身体力行，以航运巨子的身份沽清中概的航运股，在H股上市的时候也是最不积极买票支持的，就算买了一到封锁期马上沽清，不像李兆基那样死抓着不放。四叔这种忽然H股泡沫股神，不出一年就打回原型
2008.1.22 1am
现在的大方向是撤, 捞底的类别只限于农业、能源（特别是天然气），贵金属（特别是白银）。其他的全撤，A股不能沽空，所以只能撤，而且打死也不能进场接刀子。A股已转熊，就算政府迟点进场顶，外围已经全部被熊包围，中土国不是避险港，emerging在全世界转熊的情况下会更加熊，唯一的例外是老俄，1929的米国很可能就是他了，要是环球变暖的话本老中得开始学俄语。哪个白痴认为米国资金跑到中土国去避险输死他18辈子。要是A股继续暴跌，那么北水直通车肯定泡汤，可以一路FXP到新华指数再下一半左右。本来就是泡沫，要是按照国际的P/E(还不算其中E成份的垃圾），只有一半不到的价格。在熊市里面很可能还要跌过头。FXP出现得非常及时，要不然那里有那么轻松的双倍沽空方式？不会有任何大反弹，只会小弹. 这个就要参考上次97年红筹崩盘过程了，本老中认识一个亲自操盘的基金手，向他取经。据他的说法，外围的氛围并不差（米国欧洲经济都好），但是大户都有共识认为泡沫要爆了，一个出来接刀子的都没有，全是散户接，但是散户几乎都满仓，根本无法接，所以不少股票崩盘那两三天的线是直泻而下，完全没有承接力，所以一个星期内大红筹跌50%，小红筹跌80%，盘子大一点走都无法走。其实港散港基也不傻，大家都知道港股已经A股化，唯一的selling point就是北望神州有人更傻。经济实体来看，外围全是熊，珠三角工厂倒闭数以千计，出口数字将会很难看。股市来看，8月份的时候港股在19000-20000点左右徘徊，将跌未跌，所以从这里到20000点左右将会毫无阻力地跌，如果老共不马上出口术，最多反弹个几百点，然后继续往下自由落体。
消费将会崩溃，
负债直线上升是911后的事 其实也不能完全赖小布什，米国在吸金融毒这条路上走了很久。10年前，平均车贷只有2年，现在超过4年，很大一部分车贷under water，因为欠的车贷比车辆价值还高。10年前没有遍地开花的Options ARM, negative amortization,stated income home loans,02年以来不靠这个加州人民根本无法买房。10年前大学生毕业时的负贷不过是两三万，现在动辄10万以上。10年前米国人民的savings rate还是正的，现在已经负了好几年了。不要对消费抱任何幻想了，米国的消费就是两个字，崩盘，所以本老中对中印看法非常负面。这两个国家想拉动内需也不是一年半载的事，所以咱们崩他们也只好跟着崩。房产是上一波的泡沫资产，这一波怎么印钞票都受惠不了。房价会不会继续掉？看看东瀛现成的例子，从98年起接近零利息了10年，结果如何？房子是昔日光辉了，未来的光辉不属于他。你要有闲钱，敢赌的话放核能上，peak oil之后唯一的选择就是核发电，不理解的话找个基础物理问问所有carbon来源就知道了。你应该花钱买报告，本老中说的都是花钱买回来的数据. 所以不能在这里晒出来，因为没有版权。政府的数据质量最差，要详细的好的数据全部要自己买。Credit crunch is far from over, it's just begun。你就当本老中吓你，在这里跳大神好了，反正不出12个月的事，大家马上就能看到结果。昨天的环球大跌不过是个预习，好戏在后头。就算你看不到数字，在官方数字通胀明显升高而没有任何减退的情况下, 联储急急忙忙在3个多月内从5。25%降到3。5%，这个看起来是credit crunch 已经受到控制的样子吗？为什么华尔街还在叫嚣下个星期还要减息？为什么联储不出来否认？你难道不知道米国政府债券联储可以自己买自己，作为调节市场利率的的工具吗？你自己去股沟open market operations吧。还有一个地方你可以自己查数据，联储有官方的各个主要银行在联储的存款的汇报，你去比较最近一个月与整个07年度的分别。
新自由主义经济学neoliberalist，他们跟马克思犯一样的错误，高估人的智商与人性. 如果有一群智商都很高，都很有智慧的人在一起，那么新自由主义完全无政府主义可以行得通，因为每个人都知道如何充分保护自己，做出最能平衡小我大我的决定。这种情况基本上只在历史上出现过一次，老白殖民米国的时候，来的老白都是自我挑选最有奋斗开垦精神、体力脑力都超人，加上米国资源极大丰富，无政府的完全自由经济是最能激励生产力的方法。现在嘛，那叫做找死。因为社会里面智商分布不同，大部分人天生下来就是价值链上给人吃掉的，政府要是不给他们基本的保护，很快就贫富悬殊到无法忍受的地步，连少数的奴隶主都要给绝大部分的愤怒奴隶吞噬。只要社会上资源有限，智商分布不同，政府都非调节不成。布什提出过让所有人自己管理退休账户，就是典型的脑子给门夹过想法。股市是最吃人不吐骨头的地方，而且股市的基本就是少数人吃掉多数人，让这些多数人送羊入虎口，以后老了一名不文最后政府还不是头疼？混到什么层次自然就会有什么层次的邻居，有啥可吹？你要爬上去了以前的邻居跟你也就没啥关系，倒过头来跟他们有何可吹？好的朋友大家都知根究底，吹来影响友谊没什么好处。酒肉朋友的话，你比他混得好避开他都来不及，怕他借钱求办事什么的，自然不会跑到他面前吹。混得比自己好的酒肉朋友一样道理，避开你，你也吹无可吹。至于什么公众场合点头之交，除非对方有利用价值，你要让他知道你也有利用价值可以互相结盟利用利用，吹来也没什么实惠。中土国是个世界车间，不是世界工厂. 97年的时候，本老中有两个同学去香港工作，其中一个买了光大控股，当年的大红筹，P/E最高的时候超过500，一看干吗的，纺织、地产、造船，这些全是传统工业，利润多少前景多少掐指一算就出来了，那个时候炒的概念是全中土国一人给你一块钱，你就发了。但是今时今日，中土国的人均消费要在目前基础上大发，不是5年内可以做到的事。没有技术升级的产业，随时倒掉，6个月内广东已经有几千家厂倒闭，迁往越南与内陆，还有更多的倒闭潮，而且很多人津津乐道的“中土国产业链”，整块整块往越南搬。资本不对任何国家民族有感情，哪里成本更低就往哪里跑。世界车间可以随时搬走，数据滞后，等到反映出来的时候已经晚了。A股的问题不在于P/E，也不在于什么产业，而在于整个结构性的监管缺失，小股民是个提款机，可以短炒，不能长期投资。罗杰斯在Forbes访问自己承认到现在还没有持有A股，因为他不断说，if I bought, if I had held，都不知道那些中文媒体怎么翻译的。
高级精英一定要紧跟政权摆乎 你不搞政治，政治会搞到你头上来。当群众运动进入高潮，后果无可预计，这是群众心理互相渲染互相加强的问题，已经失去理性。你认为文革大炮机关枪武斗难道是老毛中央策划的？失控了也。
只要换了政权，除非觉得自己身怀绝技能够三朝不倒，都应该脚底抹油跑。不要说政权，你公司换了一个老总，都尚且要骨干大清洗，何况社稷乎？当初逃了的，起点跟那些没逃的高级狗腿奴隶主都一样，但是本人子女结局几乎无一例外更加好（除了荣毅仁这个招安例子outlier)，可见没逃就是错误的历史选择。
本老中觉得最有人生哲理的“小说”是教父（前二集）以后教育小孩，不用看其他杂7杂8的小说，红楼梦可以选取章节（12金钗副钗梦遗的就不必浪费时间），高老头要看完，但是可以反复看反复温习钻研的就是教父，前两集基本上把人生的道理全部说透了。书看来太累，电影凝聚了书的精华，每2-3分钟都有人生至理可以参透研讨。老中小说电影，没有一部可以超越教父，仰望都不行。教父第三集的水平掉了一大截，不过也可以看看。本老中是巴尔扎克迷，因为他的小说历史教训特别深刻。高老头，看看他怎么发的，面粉商哈，粮食商品大通胀的最后一期。拉斯涕涅一付手套多少法郎，干吗要一付手套需要他老家全力支持，都有整个商业计划成本计算。高老头的总资产多少，年息多少，怎么分配，全部一清二楚，让人对当时的物价、生活习俗一一了解。本老中重申，看巴尔扎克的小说能发达，绝对不能当成普通小说读，他的小说是真正的经济沿革历史。而且由于他本身出身富贵，对于有钱人的性格抓得一丝不差。其实大部分有钱人都是格朗台，不过有的外露，有的隐藏。跟很多其他的作家来说，他对他接触的奴隶主们描写特别传神，跟那些没有亲身经历作家写出来的完全不同。金庸小说可以抽离任何朝代历史背景 完全反映不到当时的思潮，当时的社会模型生活形态。人物来说，单薄得要命，没有动机没有性格层次，人的模版就几个来来去去，其实很沉闷。看他的书学不到东西，学不到怎么观察分析人，巴尔扎克是心理大师，教你如何通过一些人的语言、动作来分析他的性格、社会所处的层次，里面的人物都有血有肉啊。小说的经典就是非常真实地反映当时的民俗风情社会价值而且能精炼地概括人性。老中小说里面，能做到这一点的只有红楼梦，其他的小说只能叫做意淫，人物关系太过脸谱化，对于普通世俗的描写脱离现实，根本不可能通过作品了解当时生活。红楼梦里面，什么12金钗、宝黛钗、吃吃喝喝都是最差的部分，精华是凤姐弄权搞高利贷、抄大观园，探春李纨除兴弊，你看了那几章才知道这个家族的收支表是怎么搞的，人物之间的利益关系才看得清楚。一直被大家称为识大体的探春，其实是个为了自己前途心狠手辣的人，不惜把自己的亲母作为垫脚石一样踩上去。本老中也喜欢看法国小说，非常写实逼真，人物与人物、环境关系很让人信服，能从中学到世态，了解历史。老中的小说对于了解历史真实的一面毫无帮助，要意淫有老婆有成人片，不要浪费时间。老中的畅销书说明了普遍的老中鉴别能力 这是最终的软实力比较。本老中认为一个文化的高度，在于两种小说，一种是侦探推理小说，一种是科幻小说。老中在这两方面都是零，本老中看到过的中文科幻小说（那个什么倪匡）惨不忍睹，不合逻辑没有任何科普底子，根本读不下去，跟老白任何一位比较出名的都完全不是站在一个层次。老中在能拥有自己出色的推理侦探、科幻小说作家以前，都还是属于落后文明。不是单纯的想象力，而是在掌握了现实知识上建立的想象力
老共现在就剩下个架子，老毛分析国民党晚期统治完全套得上，大家都会观赏到老共解体的，别急，最重要的不是他解体与否，而是怎么能在他解体的过程中捞一把。这比他解体更加重要，不然的话只能欣赏烟花表演，没什么实质油水。
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